Politico: “While Trump’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran has rallied war hawks and his older supporters, it has alienated many of the young men who swung toward the GOP in 2024. That split is resonating among not only the rank-and-file, but also conservative media influencers and some corners of the White House.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Make America greater — I’m down. But Make America Great Again and then it becomes a movement of a bunch of fucking dorks? ‘Cause a lot of them are dorks. These really weird, fucking uninteresting, unintelligent people.”
— Joe Rogan, on his podcast.
Rand Paul Is 50-50 on Running for President
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) told CBS News that he’s considering a presidential run in 2028, and believes he might be able to link the libertarian wing with the business wing to counter GOP populists.
Said Paul: “We’re thinking about it. I would say 50-50.”
Quote of the Day
“I always like to hang around with losers, actually, because it makes me feel better.”
— President Trump, in a speech on Friday.
A New Oil Shock Is Building
CNBC: “The clock is ticking on the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. The emerging view from oil industry executives and analysts is that the economic and market fallout from the war could escalate sharply if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened within roughly the next one to three weeks.”
“Even then, enough damage may have been done already to leave energy and many other prices higher for longer.”
“These risks haven’t been clearly reflected in some widely followed markets, including stocks broadly and the benchmark Brent crude price. Stopgap measures to soften the blow of the oil cutoff have kept crude prices relatively low in the U.S. and European markets. But when those measures lose their effectiveness in early-to-mid April, analysts warn there will be little the U.S. or other governments can do to keep energy prices from rising dramatically.”
CPAC Highlights Fissures In Party Trump Remade
New York Times: “Speaker after speaker warned about the fissures that have emerged since Mr. Trump began a war with Iran. The conflict has split his base over the nation’s role in global affairs and how fervently the United States should back Israel in foreign conflicts. It has also opened debates over the resurgence of antisemitism from some on the right.”
Political Risks for Trump Pile Up As Iran War Continues
New York Times: “On one hand, his approval rating hasn’t gone up: There certainly isn’t the usual ‘rally around the flag’ effect that has benefited other presidents in the opening stages of military conflicts. Instead, Mr. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 40 percent, according to our average. That’s a weak number under any circumstance, but it’s especially poor during what might ordinarily be a galvanizing moment for the country.”
“On the other hand, his ratings haven’t collapsed. They’ve fallen only by a percentage point or two, and some may be wondering why he hasn’t taken a bigger hit. After all, the military campaign goes against Mr. Trump’s ‘no new wars’ promise, and it has divided some MAGA conservatives. For good measure, the polls show that a majority of the public opposes the war.”
“From that perspective, the war might look like the latest example of Mr. Trump’s political resiliency. He’s largely unscathed — again. But if you think he’s insulated from any political consequence from the war, that would be going too far. There are enormous downside risks to his presidency if the war goes on.”
Trump’s Conflicting Signals Frustrate GOP Lawmakers
“President Donald Trump’s conflicting signals over the future of the war in Iran have spurred deepening frustration among GOP lawmakers and allies who fear the administration still lacks a clear endgame after four weeks of fighting,” CNN reports.
“The minute-by-minute vacillations and conflicting signals coming out of the White House have unnerved lawmakers, political allies and even some Trump aides and advisers, who acknowledge they have little idea what will happen next and harbor increasing doubts about the administration’s management of a conflict laden with political and economic peril.”
Trump Says the U.S. No Longer Needs NATO
“The United States may stop promising to defend its NATO allies should they come under attack, President Donald Trump said Friday, escalating his verbal barrage against the alliance as his frustration grows that European leaders have not significantly contributed to his war against Iran,” the Washington Post reports.
Said Trump: “NATO just wasn’t there.”
He added: “We spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year on NATO, hundreds, protecting them, and we would have always been there for them, but now, based on their actions, I guess we don’t have to be.”
Houthis in Yemen Launch Attack on Israel
“The Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen said it launched an attack against Israel for the first time since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, risking further escalation in the month-long conflict that has engulfed the Middle East,” the Washington Post reports.
Consumers Caught in a Triple Stack of Pain
“Americans desperately want day-to-day life to be more affordable. Right now, they aren’t getting it,” Axios reports.
“The pinch of high prices for food, energy, housing and more has driven seismic shifts in public opinion over the last four years. Since the onset of the Iran war, the cost of living looks likely to get worse, not better, at least in the near term.”
“Energy prices are surging, interest rates are on the rise, and the stock market is looking wobbly — a triple whammy for U.S. households.”
Iran’s Missiles Are Getting Through
“Israel has begun rationing its use of high-end missile interceptors, hoping to preserve stocks of its most capable defensive weapons in the face of daily Iranian barrages that haven’t let up through four weeks of war,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“A pair of Iranian ballistic missiles recently scored direct hits on the towns of Dimona and Arad after Israel tried and failed to intercept them with modified versions of less advanced munitions.”
“Israel faced another alarming bombardment Thursday, with residents reporting sirens going off constantly and several missile hits across the country.”
A Portrait of Trump at War
New York Times: “It is too soon to know whether the extra time will result in productive diplomacy. But it is already clear that Mr. Trump’s wild swings — from optimism to frustration and anger, from de-escalation to escalation — have combined to give his management of the war an erratic, make-it-up-as-it goes feel.”
“Ever since the United States, alongside Israel, launched the war on Feb. 28, Mr. Trump has vacillated between chest-thumping about U.S. military superiority and deep frustration that the tactical achievements on the battlefield did not seem to be producing the strategic outcome he predicted.”
To Impeach or Not to Impeach
Max Cohen: “I spent the past week speaking to House Democrats about whether they wanted to impeach President Donald Trump for a third time in the event they win the majority. I found that although there was universal distaste for the president in the Democratic Caucus, most members want to hold off on any impeachment conversations.”
“The logistical considerations here are what are holding up Democrats. The House impeached Trump twice — in 2019 and 2021 — and the Senate acquitted the president both times. The hurdle of winning 67 votes for conviction in the Senate is a bar that Democrats admit is likely too high.”
“But just because Democrats aren’t talking about impeachment doesn’t mean they feel Trump doesn’t deserve to be reprimanded.”
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What an Influx of 17,000 Troops Could Mean for the War
“If President Trump gives the go-ahead, the U.S. could soon have more than 17,000 ground troops on Iran’s doorstep. That is far short of what would be needed for a full-scale invasion, but they could seize strategic territory on the mainland, secure Tehran’s uranium stockpiles or take an island,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The Pentagon is considering sending another 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East, even as Trump weighs peace talks with Tehran, The Wall Street Journal has reported. That would add to roughly 5,000 Marines and 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division already ordered to the region. The additional troops would likely include infantry, armored vehicles and logistics support.”
“That’s far fewer than the 150,000 troops the U.S. deployed in March 2003 to invade Iraq, a country much smaller in terms of both geography and population than Iran.”
House Passes Its Own DHS Funding Bill
“The House just passed a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security for 60 days,” Punchbowl News reports.
“But the move by Speaker Mike Johnson and his leadership team — which doesn’t have the support of Democrats or the Senate — all but ensures the DHS shutdown will drag on for at least the foreseeable future.”
Trump Suggests Renaming Strait of Hormuz After Himself
“President Trump is prioritizing taking control of the Strait of Hormuz as he grows frustrated by the lack of military help from allies to force open the economically crucial waterway,” the New York Post reports.
“And once Trump ends Iran’s reign of terror over the global shipping route, he’s considering rechristening it the ‘Strait of America’ or even after himself.”
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