“Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war,” Reuters reports.
A Few More Thoughts on War with Iran
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Trump Stays Out of Public View
“From the moment he announced an extensive military attack against Iran by posting an edited social media video at 2:30 a.m. Saturday, President Trump made clear that he would be taking a different tone and approach than his wartime predecessors,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Trump did not scramble back to the White House from Mar-a-Lago, his private club and residence in Palm Beach, to oversee the U.S. and Israeli strikes. He did not deliver a televised address informing the public of the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was the nation’s supreme leader for nearly four decades.”
“Instead, the president capped an extraordinary day of U.S. aggression abroad by attending a glitzy fund-raising dinner at his club.”
Strike at Iran Could Reshape Primary Election Dynamics
“The United States’ attack on Iran is stirring up an already-roiling Democratic debate over Israel, just as primary season kicks off,” Politico reports.
“The joint U.S.-Israel military operation has put the countries’ relationship squarely at the center of the national political debate — and the role of its big-spending allies like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which praised President Donald Trump’s strikes, front-and-center in the Democratic primaries where the group is spending.”
Flashback Quote of the Day
“We’ve spent $8 trillion in the Middle East. And we’re not fixing our roads in this country. How stupid is it? We’re not fixing our highways, our tunnels, our bridges, our hospitals, even.”
— President Trump, speaking in 2020.
Just 27% Approve of Trump’s Attack on Iran
Only one in four Americans approves of the U.S. strikes that killed Iran’s leader on Saturday, while about half — including one in four Republicans — believe President Trump is too willing to use military force, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Some 27% of respondents said they approved of the strikes, while 43% disapproved and 29% were not sure.
G. Elliott Morris notes Trump has nowhere near the overwhelming support that former President George W. Bush enjoyed when he launched military action against Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003.
Playbook: “Both campaigns eventually became deeply toxic for Bush’s legacy.”
CIA Closely Watched Khamenei for Months
“For months, Israeli and American intelligence agencies — including the CIA — had been secretly watching Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for just the right moment,” CNN reports.
“They were monitoring for his daily patterns — where he lived, who he met with, how he communicated and where he might retreat under threat of attack… They were keeping tabs, too, on Iran’s senior political and military leaders, who rarely gathered in the same place with the ayatollah, the country’s supreme leader for nearly four decades.”
“Over the last several days, they found their opportunity. Top Iranian officials, including Khamenei, planned to meet Saturday morning at separate sites on a Tehran compound that is home to the offices of the ayatollah, the Iranian presidency and the national security apparatus.”
“The overly cautious supreme leader felt less vulnerable during daylight hours, an Israeli source said, and let down his guard.”
Trump Says Iran Wants to Resume Negotiations
One day after launching strikes on Iran that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and embroiled the region in war, President Trump told Michael Scherer this morning that the country’s new leadership wants to talk with him and that he plans to do so.
Said Trump: “They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them. They should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easy to do sooner. They waited too long.”
Separation of Powers
Just published: Separation of Powers: How to Preserve Liberty in Troubled Times by Cass R. Sunstein.
Why the separation of powers is essential to liberty and democracy.
Trump Complicates Planned Summit with Xi
“One month before President Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are set to convene at a much-touted summit in China, the U.S. leader’s toppling of another friend of China risks stoking tensions between the world’s biggest economies,” Bloomberg reports.
“After US and Israeli military strikes on Iran wiped out the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Sunday called it ‘unacceptable to openly kill the leader of a sovereign country and institute regime change.’ Speaking by phone with his Russian counterpart, Wang warned that the US president risked driving the Middle East into the ‘abyss.'”
“Condemnation of Washington from China’s top diplomat stands out during a delicate period when officials on both sides are trying to steady relations before Trump arrives in Beijing on March 31. Complicating that task, the Republican has ousted two leaders with ties to Beijing in quick succession this year, after the US in January snatched Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro from his Caracas home.”
Poll Finds No Rally Effect After Iran Strikes
Morning Consult: “Trump approval (44% to 53%) and his foreign policy approval (43% to 52%) are unchanged from pre-strike baselines. The strikes have not moved his numbers immediately.”
The country is split: “41% of registered voters say strikes necessary vs. 42% who prefer diplomacy.”
U.S. Races to Finish Mission Before Munitions Run Out
“When the U.S. military’s top general laid out the risks to President Trump of launching a major and extended attack on Iran, one of the issues he flagged was America’s stockpile of munitions,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Now that is being put to the test, as the U.S. races to destroy Iran’s missile and drone force before it runs out of interceptors to fend off Tehran’s retaliation.”
“The precise size of the U.S. stock of air-defense interceptors—what the Pentagon calls magazine depth—is classified. But repeated conflicts with Iran and its proxies in the Middle East have been eating into the supply of air defenses in the region.”
The Worst-Case Outcome Is Complete Chaos
The Atlantic: “Killing the supreme leader was one thing. Ousting the regime will be another.”
‘Bored of Peace’
Saturday Night Live opened with Donald Trump’s character, who touted himself as peacemaker, now addressing the country exulting in war with Iran.
Said Trump: “I launched this attack after me and my Board of Peace decided that we were bored of peace.”
China Condemns ‘Unacceptable’ Strikes on Iran
“China criticized the US and Israeli military action against Iran, warning that it risks plunging the Middle East into deeper instability and undermining international law,” Bloomberg reports.
Democrats Already Plotting Probes If They Retake House
“House Democrats, who hope to regain the majority in the November midterms, are already charting an aggressive strategy of investigating the Trump administration next year, including using subpoena power to compel testimony from President Donald Trump and launching impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem,” the Washington Post reports.
U.S. Moves Pregnant Immigrant Girls to Texas
“All unaccompanied immigrant children who are pregnant, many by rape, are being moved to a single facility in Texas in order to avoid providing abortion services in a significant human rights violation,” The Guardian reports.
Iranian Security Chief Warns of Retaliation
“Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on social media that Iran would hit the U.S. and Israel on Sunday with unprecedented force,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Said Larijani: “Yesterday, Iran fired missiles at the United States and Israel and they did hurt. Today, we will hit them with a force that they have never experienced before.”
President Trump responded: “They better not do that, however, because if they do, we will hit them with a force that has never been seen before.”
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