Political Wire

  • Front Page
  • Members
    • Subscribe
    • Sign In
  • Trending
  • Resources
    • Politics Extra
    • Political Job Hunt
    • Political Dictionary
    • Electoral Vote Map
  • Newsletter
  • Contact Us
You are here: Home / 2014 Campaign / Why Did Republicans Exceed Expectations?
Become a member to get many great benefits -- exclusive analysis, trending news, a private podcast, no ads and more!


Why Did Republicans Exceed Expectations?

November 19, 2014 at 9:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard 19 Comments

David Wasserman: “The answer lies less in what Republicans did, and more in what Democratic voters didn’t do: show up to vote in so-called orphan states.”

“To ease my post-election withdrawal, I built a spreadsheet of results in all 435 districts to analyze what happened. What it illustrated: By winning just 52 percent of votes cast for the House, Republicans were able to win 57 percent of all House seats. Thanks in part to favorable redistricting after the 2010 Census, Republicans will likely have won five more seats than they did in 2010, even though Republican candidates won by less of an aggregate vote margin than they did four years ago.”

“The election of a historically large Republican majority coincided with the lowest turnout in a midterm election since 1942. But the 2014 race for the House played out in two very different sets of states. In the 24 states hosting high-profile, competitive Senate or gubernatorial races, raw votes cast in House races were down an average of 30.5 percent from 2012.2 But in the 26 states that weren’t, raw votes were down a much more severe 43.9 percent.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]This is exceptionally good analysis of what happened in the midterm elections.[/speech_bubble]

FavoriteLoadingSave to Favorites
  • Bluesky
  • X
  • Threads
  • Facebook
  • Email

Filed Under: 2014 Campaign


You're reading the free version of Political Wire

Upgrade to a paid membership to unlock full access. The process is quick and easy. You can even use Apple Pay.

  • ✔ Become a member to get many great benefits -- exclusive analysis, trending news, a private podcast, no ads and more!
  • ✔ If you're already a member, log in for the full experience.



Recent Posts

Trump’s Ultimate Yes-Man

December 22, 2025 at 9:08 am EST

Ian Parker: “Peter Navarro established the template of sycophancy for Trump Administration officials.” Save to Favorites

Top Heritage Officials Flee to Mike Pence’s Nonprofit

December 22, 2025 at 8:40 am ESTDecember 22, 2025 at 8:41 am EST

“Former Vice President Mike Pence’s political group is poaching top officials from the conservative Heritage Foundation amid growing ideological fights within the conservative movement and backlash at the prominent foundation,”…

Fear and Fury

December 22, 2025 at 8:22 am EST

Out next month: Fear and Fury: The Reagan Eighties, the Bernie Goetz Shootings, and the Rebirth of White Rage by Heather Ann Thompson. “Out of this dramatic moment would emerge an…

Bonus Quote of the Day

December 22, 2025 at 8:18 am EST

“The world has changed. We shifted from a — in some sense — moral way of doing things to a very pragmatic and economical way of doing things.” — Romania…

Gap Undermines Trump’s Birthright Citizenship Plan

December 22, 2025 at 7:44 am EST

New York Times: “The court will hear arguments in the spring to decide whether that is right. There are many tools for assessing the original meaning of a constitutional provision,…

Becca Balint Eyes Bernie Sanders’ Seat

December 22, 2025 at 7:41 am EST

Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT) said she would consider running for independent Sen. Bernie Sanders’ seat should he decide not to run for reelection in 2030, NOTUS reports. Said Balint: “I’m…

Trump’s Grip on the GOP Being Tested

December 22, 2025 at 7:38 am ESTDecember 22, 2025 at 7:54 am EST

CNN: Even as most of the GOP faithful remains squarely behind the president or unwilling to publicly step out of line, the list of those confident enough to defy Trump…

More Than 50 U.S. Lawmakers Are Retiring Next Year

December 22, 2025 at 7:35 am EST

“During an absolute blizzard of other news on Friday afternoon, two Republican lawmakers—Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York and Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming—announced they would not seek re-election next…

Justice Department Restores Image of Trump

December 22, 2025 at 7:32 am ESTDecember 22, 2025 at 7:36 am EST

“The Department of Justice restored online a photo from the Jeffrey Epstein files that contained images showing President Donald Trump after backlash over its removal,” CNBC reports. “Deputy Attorney General…

Quote of the Day

December 22, 2025 at 7:29 am EST

“Let me be clear. Anyone who attacks my wife, whether their name is Jen Psaki or Nick Fuentes, can eat shit. That’s my official policy as vice president of the…

Lawmakers Must Start Talks to Avoid Another Shutdown

December 22, 2025 at 7:18 am ESTDecember 22, 2025 at 7:19 am EST

Politico: “The impediments to reaching a deal that can pass both chambers are more extensive, starting with the fact that Republicans and Democrats on both ends of the Capitol have…

Reporters Threaten to Quit at ‘60 Minutes’

December 22, 2025 at 7:09 am EST

Inside 60 Minutes, where journalistic independence is sacrosanct, “people are threatening to quit” over the network killing a story the White House did not like, Brian Stelter reports. Save to…

Makeovers Are Part of the 2028 Prep

December 22, 2025 at 6:38 am EST

“Democrats eyeing 2028 presidential runs are losing weight, upgrading their wardrobes and changing their hairstyles — a time-honored tradition for White House hopefuls that has taken on new urgency in…

Ted Cruz Weighs Another Presidential Run

December 22, 2025 at 6:34 am EST

Washington Post: “With the future of the party up for grabs in a Donald Trump-less 2028 primary, Cruz has in recent months positioned himself as a loud voice for a…

The Economy Survived 2025, but Many Are Reeling

December 22, 2025 at 6:30 am EST

“After a chaotic year filled with trade wars, market gyrations and the longest government shutdown in history, the U.S. economy has, once again, proved more resilient than many forecasters feared,”…

Vance Refuses to Take Sides in GOP Fight Over Bigotry

December 22, 2025 at 6:28 am EST

“The bitter infighting over antisemitism, free speech and bigotry during Turning Point USA’s annual national conference not only exposed fissures in President Trump’s movement but also laid bare a challenge…

Post-Election Donors Have Benefited From Trump’s Return

December 22, 2025 at 6:26 am EST

“Since President Trump was elected a second time, he and his allies have raised nearly $2 billion for his favored political causes and passion projects. That total likely eclipses the…

Parties Pitch Competing Plans on Affordability

December 22, 2025 at 5:34 am EST

“Lawmakers in both parties view simmering fury over the cost of living as the top issue in next year’s midterm elections and are pitching a growing profusion of proposals to…

Trump Taps Louisiana Governor as Greenland Envoy

December 21, 2025 at 10:49 pm EST

“President Trump said he’s nominating Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as US special envoy to Greenland, in the latest signal that the president retains designs on increasing US influence over the…

‘60 Minutes’ Kills Segment White House Didn’t Like

December 21, 2025 at 10:46 pm EST

“CBS News abruptly pulled an investigative 60 Minutes segment on the Trump administration’s deportations of Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador’s CECOT prison after the Trump administration refused to grant an…

« The Race for 2016 Campaign Talent Begins
Carter May Run Again in Georgia »

Get Smarter About Politics

Members get exclusive analysis, a trending news page, the Trial Balloon podcast, bonus newsletters and no advertising. Learn more.

Your Account

Sign in

Latest for Members

  • Democrats Are Mistaking Momentum for a Mandate
  • What Was That?
  • Tar Heel Target
  • The Trump–Epstein Story Isn’t Going Away
  • Trump’s ‘Malaise’ Moment

Word of the Day

Dummymander: “Dummymander” is a play on the term “gerrymander,” and it refers to a redrawing of a district map that actually ends up benefiting ….

Read the full definition

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

Praise for Political Wire

“There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them.”

— Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”

“Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all.”

— Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

“Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

— Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

“The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom — nicely packaged, constantly updated… What political junkie could ask for more?”

— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

“Political Wire is a great, great site.”

— Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”

“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”

— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

“Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere.”

— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

“I rely on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It’s an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading.”

— Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.

Copyright © 2025 · Goddard Media LLC | Privacy Policy | Corrections Policy

Political Wire ® is a registered trademark of Goddard Media LLC