Betting Markets See Trump as Favorite

Sean Trende: “I don’t know what else we can tell you. The modelers are effectively 50-50. Our tipping point state average has Trump up 0.3%, which is effectively 50-50. Everything…

“Dear J.D. Vance: Have you found that calling a woman trash has worked for you? Because we generally don’t forget that shit.” — Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), on X. Save…

Cameron Joseph: “While postelection chaos is quite possible, 2024 is unlikely to be an exact replay of 2020. In important ways, the system has been strengthened.” Save to Favorites

Bushra Seddique: “Every four years, some liberal Americans threaten to leave the country if a Republican wins the presidency. Canada has become almost a joke—or maybe a fantasy—in certain left-leaning…

Philip Bump: “Polling conducted by YouGov over the weekend included a question centered on the alternate universe in which Biden never dropped out at all. And in that universe, Donald…

The weather forecast is cold and rainy today in Michigan and Wisconsin, but the other swing states look clear, and extreme weather isn’t forecast anywhere, Politico reports. Save to Favorites

Politico: “Never in modern political history has there been so much uncertainty heading into Election Day — with such a wide array of possible outcomes.” Save to Favorites

New York Times: “The first battleground state where the polls will close is Georgia, at 7 p.m. Eastern time, followed closely by North Carolina, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. A majority…

Nate Silver: “At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%)…

Nate Cohn: “For Democrats, it’s a textbook challenge. In the latest New York Times/Siena College national poll, only 40 percent of voters approved of President Biden’s performance, and just 28…

Wall Street Journal: “Prices on four betting platforms all point to an election victory for Donald Trump. Prices on PredictIt, which in recent days suggested Kamala Harris had the better…

Washington Post: “Harris’s mostly likely path to the presidency is through the Rust Belt as she has posted some of her best polling numbers there. If she is able to…

Washington Post: “Trump’s most likely path to 270 is winning Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, assuming he wins all the other non-swing states he won in 2020. Trump is ahead…

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) criticized Vice President Kamala Harris for disrespecting Americans just moments before calling her “trash,” Axios reports. Said Vance: “I want to ask us not to follow…