The Delegate Count Isn’t What’s Important

Nate Silver
notes that while the Republican presidential primary has come down to
collecting delegates on the way to the convention, “the G.O.P.’s
delegate-selection rules are exceptionally complicated and ambiguous.
Many delegates could go to the convention in Tampa either loosely
pledged or entirely unbound to any of the candidates.”

“That means
there will be some wiggle room in the math. Doing things like winning
key states, leading in the aggregate popular vote, leading in national
polls and appearing to have the momentum at the end of the process may
influence the behavior of these unbound delegates. If a candidate can
make a credible claim to having a mandate from the voters, they might
line up behind him. If his claim is poor, they could block his
nomination.”