Nate Cohn: “If Obama’s four point lead persists through the week, Obama should be considered a very strong favorite for reelection. While it might seem that the heart of the campaign is still to come, the candidate leading two weeks after the in-party convention has gone onto win the popular vote in every presidential election since Truman’s come from behind victory in 1948. And the only other comebacks were also staged by candidates or incumbents who ascended to the presidency or the nomination following resignation, assassination, or a late decision not to seek reelection.”
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