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You are here: Home / White House / The Political Economy of Trump’s Luck

The Political Economy of Trump’s Luck

October 28, 2025 at 8:35 am ET By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Edward Luce: “Donald Trump’s ill-wishers often reassure themselves that his health will fade soon. A PhD could be had from analysing the cottage industry that for years has been predicting Trump is about to keel over, or has finally lost his mind. Yet the 79-year-old is still going in roughly the same way.”

“The same is broadly true of the U.S. economy. Throughout this year, as was also true when he was first president in 2017, the Trump recession has always been just around the corner. Yet the term ‘Trumpcession’ still has no reason to enter circulation.”

“There is a recurring lesson here for liberals, which is that they should base their plans on the world as it is, not as they want it to be. In terms of the U.S. economy, forecasters should add a Trump luck factor to their models.”

Filed Under: White House

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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