Gallup finds the composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004.
As a result, the election’s outcome “may hinge more on how groups vote rather than to what extent they will vote. And most groups are currently less likely to support Obama now than they were in 2008. However, Obama’s seven-point margin of victory in the 2008 election leaves him considerable breathing room to lose electoral support yet still win the election.”

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