This Is Not a Short Term Oil Spike

Energy Common Sense: “Even if shipping resumes, nearly three weeks of backlog cannot be cleared quickly. Tankers are delayed, cargoes are floating, and insurance has fundamentally repriced risk. More importantly, production itself has taken hits that cannot be quickly reversed. Wells shut under pressure take time to restart, damaged facilities require repair, and in some cases, production has been curtailed because there is nowhere for it to go. Storage is finite, logistics are broken, and the system is no longer operating as a continuous flow but as a constrained network under stress.”

“This is why this is not a short-lived spike. This is now a multi-month, likely rest-of-year story of elevated prices and elevated risk. The damage is physical, and physical systems take time to rebuild.”