Nate Cohn says that too much weight is given to President Obama’s approval rate sinking below the 50% threshold in recent polls.
“Falling below that mark might give the impression that the president is ‘weaker’ politically, but it hardly warrants notice. After all, the president entered his reelection campaign with similar numbers and ultimately won by a convincing margin. A larger decline in Obama’s approval ratings, to the low forties, would augur poorly for Obama’s second-term agenda, but not what we’re seeing now. The president’s legislative initiatives, including a debt deal and immigration reform, depend on cultivating organic Republican support for compromise, not the president’s ability coerce Republicans with his popularity. Even at the height of his post-election bounce, Obama’s mid-fifties approval ratings didn’t force Republicans to accept a balanced approach to reduce the debt.”
“But lower approval ratings, and the desire to raise them, could make the White House more interested in the long sought ‘grand bargain’–perhaps the only event, other than noticeably improved economic conditions, that might send the president’s approval rating back into the mid-fifties, or higher.”
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