Why Obama’s Falling Approval Rating Matters

John Sides: “First, it matters for the 2014 election. A simple model of House election outcomes constructed by political scientist Gary Jacobson shows that the share of seats controlled by the president’s party depends in part on presidential approval…. Obviously, other factors matter too. But a less popular president certainly provides headwinds for Democratic candidates.”

“Second, it matters for the 2016 election. Of course, that’s a long way away, and a lot can happen between now and then. But again, simple forecasting models show that, controlling for other factors, the incumbent party does better when the incumbent president is popular.”

“Third, it matters for whether the President gets what he wants from Congress–with some caveats.”