Model Predicts Small Gain for House Republicans

John Sides updates his House midterm election forecast and finds “the prognosis for Democrats isn’t any better: the median estimate is a small seat loss (to 196 seats). The chance of their regaining the House is still very low — about 1%.”

Meanwhile, the estimates for Republicans “are centered around a median of 239, which would represent a gain of 5 seats relative to the 234-seat Republican majority after the 2012 election.”