Political Wire

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July 21, 2015

14 posts · Tuesday

Trump Has the GOP Establishment in a Bind

· 110 Comments

Joe Scarborough: “Trump will always be Trump, and there is no need for anyone in the Republican establishment to think otherwise. The best they can do is ride this wave of dissatisfaction and learn a lesson or two from it… But anyone looking for salvation from party leaders or major money players are looking in the wrong place. The burden of dethroning the Donald falls on GOP politicians like Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and others who have politely played by the old rules of an outdated political system that is no longer relevant to most Americans.”

“The longer Trump’s opponents play it safe, the longer Trump will continue his political ascent. If anyone in the field plans on showing the type of courage that doesn’t spill out of a focus group or benchmark poll, the DC Establishment had better hope they find it soon. Because there is at least a small chance that Mr. Trump will stop making unforced errors soon. And if that happens, there is no telling where this crazy race goes next.”

Bonus Trump Quote on the Day

· 71 Comments

“He doesn’t seem like a very bright guy. He actually probably seems to me not as bright as Rick Perry. I think Rick Perry probably is smarter than Lindsey Graham.”

— Donald Trump, in a South Carolina speech, on Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). He later read out Graham’s private cell phone number to the audience.

Democrats Show Weakness in State and Local Races

· 59 Comments

Wall Street Journal: “A tepid economy and President Obama’s sinking approval ratings contributed to some of the Democratic losses last fall. The setbacks also revealed a withering of the campaign machinery built by Mr. Obama’s team more than seven years ago. While Democrats held the White House, Republicans have strengthened their hand in statehouses across the U.S.”

“Democrats maintain a significant electoral college advantage as shifting U.S. demographics tilt their way. This spring, a Pew Research Center analysis found that 48% of Americans either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 39% who identify with Republicans or lean Republican. But many Democrats worry that GOP success capturing state and local offices will erode that advantage before they have a chance to rebuild.”

Who Will Make the Debate Cut?

· 71 Comments

First Read calculates the polling averages from the last five national polls to see who will get to participate in the first GOP presidential debate on August 6:

  1. Trump – 16.8%
  2. Bush – 14.8%
  3. Walker – 9.8%
  4. Rubio – 6.2%
  5. Huckabee – 6.2%
  6. Paul – 6.2%
  7. Carson – 5.8%
  8. Cruz – 5.2%
  9. Christie – 2.8%
  10. Perry – 2.4%

Not making the cut:

  1. Santorum – 1.8%
  2. Kasich – 1.6%
  3. Jindal – 1.4%
  4. Fiorina – 0.8%
  5. Graham – 0.2%

The Upshot also has a good look at who could make the first debate when you consider the polling sampling errors.

Can John Kasich Break Through?

· 53 Comments

First Read: “If the two-term governor of all-important Ohio — with a 60% approval rating in his state — announces a presidential bid and no one hears it, did it really happen? That’s John Kasich’s challenge as he makes his White House run official today at 11:00 am ET amid all of the Donald Trump headlines… It’s the Summer of Donald, and it’s become hard for the other GOP presidential hopefuls to break through. Remember that Scott Walker officially announced his presidential bid last week, and he barely broke through all the Trump news, at least nationally.”

Maine’s Top Court to Resolve Veto Dispute

· 9 Comments

The Maine Supreme Judicial Court announced that it will expedite Gov. Paul LePage’s (R) request to determine whether he can still veto 65 bills that legislative officers already have written into law, the Portland Press Herald reports.

“The stakes are high for the governor, who faces the prospect of losing a battle that could cost him politically. Among the newly chaptered laws are proposals that the governor and his supporters vehemently oppose, including General Assistance for asylum seekers, expanded use of a medication to treat drug overdoses and birth control for MaineCare recipients. If the court rules against LePage, or declines to intervene, those bills will remain law because the governor and his staff either misinterpreted the Maine Constitution or gambled and lost in pursuit of the goal of keeping lawmakers at the State House through the summer.”

Jeb Bush Is Meaner Than He Looks

· 37 Comments

Larry Sabato: “Most presidential candidates have a streak of ruthlessness in them—even the nice guys. Make that especially the nice guys. They’re mild-mannered and courteous in public, so someone else has to do the dirty work of winning for them.”

“Jeb Bush will prove this again. It’s an easy prediction that he’ll follow his brother and father in bushwhacking any opponent standing between him and the presidency. With the Bushes, do not take too seriously their assertions of personal sweetness.”

Kasich Enters Crowded GOP Presidential Race

· 25 Comments

Gov. John Kasich (R), “a blunt-spoken and unorthodox Republican who bucked his party by expanding Medicaid under President Obama’s health care law and says politicians must ‘reach out and help those who live in the shadows,’ is expected to announce Tuesday that he is joining his party’s long list of candidates for president,” the New York Times reports.

Washington Post: “Kasich would begin the race far back in the pack, according to most polls. But as the governor of one of the nation’s most important general election states, and with a political style unlike that of others in the race, Kasich’s advisers say they believe he can become a credible threat to win the nomination. His detractors question whether he has the discipline required to win a long and grueling presidential race.”

Columbus Dispatch: “Although Kasich and supporters say that his resume and experience are unmatched in the GOP field, including by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, concern about his temperament and emotional fitness for the presidency have seeped into the national media narrative.”

Quote of the Day

· 35 Comments

“Nobody leaves a race because they get tired, or because they think they don’t have the votes. They leave the race because they run out of money. Donald Trump will never run out of money, and that makes him incredibly powerful.”

— GOP pollster Frank Luntz, quoted by the AP.

Trump Snubs Early State Power Brokers

· 7 Comments

CNN: “Republican leaders in early-voting states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are used to getting the full-court press from presidential candidates. But they say they’ve heard little from Trump. Without durable relationships in the early states, Trump could find himself especially vulnerable to shifts in the news cycle that move national opinion.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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