Late Deciders Broke for Rubio

Nate Silver: “It’s not uncommon for the polls to be off in Iowa and other early-voting states, but the manner in which Trump underachieved is revealing. It turns out that few late-deciding voters went for him. According to entrance polls in Iowa, Trump won 39 percent of the vote among Iowans who decided on their candidate more than a month ago. But he took just 13 percent of voters who had decided in the last few days, with Rubio instead winning the plurality of those voters.”

Politico: “If polls were only meant to predict the horse-race, pollsters would keep interviewing voters until the very last minute. They aren’t, and that’s why the polls may have missed some late shifts.”