• abctefg

    30-17. That sill looks gappy.

    • ralph_wiggam

      If he can consolidate the establishment vote for the sake of stopping trump and if undecideds break for him like they did in IA and if trump supporters are as apathetic as were in IA, there is a window available for Rubio to make this a close race.

      • abctefg

        Yeah, but. There have been a helluva lot of trump-ifs this cycle.

        • ralph_wiggam

          Absolutely , but we saw those same ifs in Iowa didn’t we? I’m just saying those trends may continue into NH and maybe beyond.

  • jeremy tranor

    If Trump loses here it’s over for him and Rubio walks away with the nomination. More likely Trump wins by under 10 and we get a three way race through super Tuesday.

    • ralph_wiggam

      Through super Tuesday and all the way to the convention, hopefully.

    • NeedACleverName

      Agree a Trump loss will kill his chances. Not so sure he’ll win NH, just yet. Anything can happen at the debate, and a spooked Trump is a very unpredictable Trump. He may come out with another heinous statement that rallies his troops, but he could do something damaging.

  • Lat1

    Yup, Trump is in “big trouble” and Rubio is the “clear favorite” according to this poll.

    If these numbers hold on Tuesday night the media headlines will be.

    “Trump concedes race to Rubio who has won the NH primary by coming in 2nd. Trump needed at least a 15 point victory in order to be considered the true winner. Ted Cruz to drop out of race because a 2 point loss to Rubio is the equivalent of a 20 point loss.”

  • BillBuckley

    Trump -1
    Rubio +6
    Cruz +3
    Kasich -1
    Bush +1
    Christie -3
    Carson -1
    Fiorina -2
    Paul 4—>0

    So the movement seems to be be mostly Rand Paul going out, and Chris Christie tanking, Fiorina moving to well deserved irrelevancy.

    • NeedACleverName

      ABC announced last night that Fiorina will not be on the debate stage, so that’s most likely the death knell to her sad campaign.

      • BillBuckley

        The anti-Hillary had outlived her usefulness to the GOP by early fall anyway.

        • politicsjunkie

          Buh buh but Planned Parenthood is trafficking in baby parts! Baby parts I tell you!

  • Adam Brown

    Should close a few points further. Trump will likely win NH, but I suspect Rubio will be within 5 points…. And it will legitimately become a 3 man race.

  • GatorLegal1

    Rubio closes the gap? He’s still trailing by double digits. Such narrowing of the gap between the top 3 GOP candidates is fully to be expected when all 3 finished so close to each other in Iowa. (Betcha if Hillary was losing by 13% the headline would read instead “Hillary getting crushed”.)

    • enfuegobuddha

      I think the idea is that Rubio’s ceiling is much higher than his current numbers once the other establishment candidates drop out. (or if they drop out)

  • wymurph

    Every now and then it hits me like a brick– a once great political party is on the verge of nominating Trump , Cruz, or Rubio. Awe inspiring, and not in a good way.

  • i want 4% Christie to attack Rubio harder

  • Roehl

    I don’t see Trump quitting if he doesn’t win in NH, does anyone?

  • Buford2k11

    I wonder if Rubio can even find New Hampshire on a marked map…?

  • Lat1

    Also, Ted Cruz is like the forgotten man in the last few days.

    “Cruz wins Iowa caucuses. Advantage Rubio!”

    You can’t make this stuff up.

  • mi5cents

    If Mr. Trump does not win in New Hampshire, his campaign will be over.
    Rubio and Cruz will be left to duke it out. Rubio has two advantages in that contest. First–the desire of enough GOP voters for a candidate they think can win and, second, the amount of money and other support the Wall Street / Washington wing of the party will pour into his campaign. I’d bet it will be enough, even if only barely, to carry him to the nomination. It may be old, tired and increasingly unpopular with many base voters, but the GOP establishment can probably squeeze out one more victory.