• Trajan8

    It’s amazing to me to look at Rubio’s line, and think back to all the predictions of his upcoming surge.

    • jpic

      Aw shuckie darn! I SO wanted to run against Hillary.

    • Kyle

      It’s also amazing that no one called out Rubio’s plan to win the nomination by losing every state…

    • FrogLeg

      Whenever someone claims that an impending surge will fix everything, THEY ARE ALWAYS WRONG.

    • NewCitizen

      I am also inspired by the leadership and impact that Mittens Romney has had since jumping into the anti-Trump movement!! Lol…

    • fgtayl01

      The Republican voters were just waiting for the establishment to tell them who to sink next.

    • Let’s dispense with this notion that Rubio’s supporters don’t know what they’re doing by abandoning him; they know *exactly* what they’re doing.

    • Unsphexish

      A downward surge is still technically a surge.

    • ralph_wiggam

      Did you hear, now they are predicting the Kasich Surge.

      With analysts like this on your side, I wish Kasich lots of luck.

  • Hagar32Grady

    Looks excellent for Cable Reality(?) TV viewers….. but for the rest of us, not too much.

  • Wynstone

    This blows daddyoyo’s theory about Trump’s ceiling.

    • Alki

      I said as much below, but if your reasoning going into this election was that Republicans were going to have better judgment than this … you really haven’t been watching Republicans that long.

  • RG 5626

    What ever happened to the ceiling of support that was supposed to stop Trump from actually winning the nomination? If he can get over half of the Republicans to support him, we can’t rule out him winning the presidency in November. Let’s hope that Democrats come out in 2008 numbers and realize that even if Hillary is not the most exciting candidate, she would at least prevent a Trump win.

    • Wynstone

      There are many reasons to make Hillary your anti-Trump vote even if you don’t like her. If we can reject racist leadership in tumultuous times like the 1960s, then we should damn well be able to do it in 2016!

      • GatorLegal1

        Not many people on the left or the right are going to accept or even like this right now, and that’s fine: But I think HRC is the only highly-experienced and *centrist* candidate remaining on both sides. Which I expect will be enough for her to win the election by about the same margin as Obama in 2008 (if either Trump or Cruz is the GOP nominee). Just my opinion.

        • Alki

          Your opinions have a lovely way of aligning with reality.

          • GatorLegal1

            I pray that just enough reason and sanity prevails on election day in November, otherwise our nation will be poised in a very bad position in a variety of almost unthinkable ways with either a Trump or Cruz presidency. This is not hyperbole, and I would hope that most would agree.

          • Alki

            Right there with you. I’d like to believe the only reason he polls close to Dems in a hypothetical general is because the question is so insulting to people with brains they immediately hang up the phone.

          • abctefg

            America’s friends abroad are quietly FREAKED.

    • Chris Leatherman

      I agree. This Democrat takes him quite seriously, and I didn’t start out that way. Let’s hope some folks on the left end of the spectrum don’t pretend there’s no difference between Clinton and Trump like they did in 2000 in the Bush-Gore race and vote third party or not show-up.

      • APV

        Even worse…some Sanders supporters who would cross over to vote for Trump

        “The Guardian sought out Sanders fans who are contemplating switching their allegiance to Trump if Hillary Clinton secures the Democratic nomination. Almost 700 people replied to the call-out, and some 500 of them said they were thinking the unthinkable: a Sanders-Trump switch.

        They explained their unconventional position by expressing a variety of passionately held views on their shared commitment for protecting workers and against new wars, on their zeal for an alternative to the establishment, and on their desire to support anyone but Hillary Clinton.

        The Guardian call-out was not a poll, but controlled surveys by polling companies have identified this small but not insignificant slice of the Sanders crowd who would consider backing Trump.”


        • Wynstone

          I guess they are ignoring Trump’s promise to escalate the conflict with ISIS.

          • GatorLegal1

            Perhaps a majority of those (small percentage of) people who would actually defect from Sanders to Trump probably *want* Trump to escalate conflict with ISIS….

          • Wynstone

            Maybe, but it belies the rhetoric expressed “against new wars”. It would likely cause greater enmity toward America as well because ISIS embeds with civilians so we would have to murder them to even get at ISIS.

          • GatorLegal1

            Certainly, yes of course. But a lot of these people don’t think that far ahead. To many, “taking the fight to ISIS” by dropping bombs (literal and rhetorical) is “stronger” and more preferable than waging a less brash, more sophisticated and quieter type of fight against the global forces and political regimes that have led to the rise of ISIS.

        • Chris Leatherman

          I get the anger and the angst at both ends of the spectrum, but it is still mind-boggling. Sanders is on the right side of so many issues and Trump is on the wrong side of just about everything. I’m not exactly Sanders’ biggest supporter, but I’d never cast a vote for Trump or any of the other clowns. If he is our nominee, he has my vote. Period. There is far too much at stake that we will have to live with for 25-30 years.

          • Wynstone

            There will probably be some dopes who insist there’s no difference between mainstream candidates of either party and vote Trump just to be contrarian, but they will be a small minority. Clinton will destroy on detailed policy and Trump will continue to alienate large swaths of general election voters.

          • Chris Leatherman

            True. One thing that gives me hope are the debates in September-October. I think either of our candidates would utterly crush him on policy.

        • LKM

          The Guardian had another article last week that statistically both Trump and Sanders campaigns are fueled by “angry white men.” In all other demographic breakdowns they don’t have the clear majority.

          To people who think through issues, transferring allegiance from Sanders to Trump is unthinkable. Problem is, not everyone thinks through issues before voting.

        • the best way to prevent new wars is surely to elect an insecure bellicose ignoramus

      • Mike

        Damn, I can only upvote this one time… unless I make 100 more profiles!

        • Chris Leatherman


    • Alki

      “There are only so many Republicans who are stupid enough to do that,” and other phrases that any amount of thought could have told you were BS from the start.

  • Allan Williams

    Everyone else has pretty much flatlined (getting ready to pull the plug on Rubio). Looks like Trump is collecting most of the drop-out vote. (yes, I meant “drop-out” to be rather tongue in cheek.)

  • Chris Leatherman

    Yep, Trump just blew through the ceiling many of us thought he had early on. It is now lying all over the neighborhood.

  • Dodgson

    If it is Trump vs Hillary I think there might be some bad polling leading up to the elections… no one wants to admit on the phone that they support a racist or that they are sexist.

    • Wynstone

      53% of republicans seem okay with it.

  • Lat1

    If I can just get Trump one on one says Ted Cruz…

  • Bugsy63

    Rubio’s been dead longer than francisco franco. Isn’t it time to stop with him?

    • Chris Leatherman

      And he is fighting valiantly to remain so.

  • Wynstone

    In related news, Breitbart is melting down over Trump favoritism at the organization. Oh, happy day!

    • littlejohn

      Hopefully the first of several right wing meltdowns. Hopefully Fox News will be next (I wish!).

    • OBforObama

      It is shocking to me that Breitbart folks think the whole thing is a hoax.

      I mean, come on, what kind of person would create a false video just to score some political points? It defies all reason, to say nothing of ethics.

    • embo66

      They’ve seen at least 3 major resignations just since Friday. I guess even some Breitbart “journalists” have some honor.

      • Wynstone

        All it took was physical abuse of one of their own female reporters. So courageous to stand against that.

  • littlejohn

    GOP, celebrate your nominee. And you well deserve him.

  • DarnSkippy

    For the love of God, how?

  • chisholm

    Entirely OT but I’m traveling like a lunatic starting in an hour and won’t be around to chime in on tomorrow night’s results so imma throw my prediction down:

    Sanders wins IL, OH, and MO.
    HRC wins NC in a squeaker.
    HRC wins FL by smaller margins than polls would suggest.

    HRC wins thin majority of the night’s delegates.

    I hope to hell I’m wrong and she wins at least one of the Midwest states too but 538’s state trend lines make me feel the pred above. OK, I’m outta here.

    • Wynstone

      I’ll stick my neck out and say HRC wins IL, OH, NC, and FL. Sanders wins MO. I’m not calling margins.

      • L2thaL

        Florida she wins big

      • d v

        I’ll split the difference. Big Clinton wins in FL and NC. Very narrow Sanders wins in IL and OH, and Missouri is too close to call.

      • Tamburello1994

        I have never voted in a primary before tomorrow i cast my vote for HRC in Illinois.

        • LKM

          Same here across the river.

  • RadicalCentrist

    Rubio has been an appallingly bad candidate. I think he’d be tanking even if Trump had never entered the race. But watch that Kasich surge-if the campaign ran until 2018, people might actually get tired of Trump and turn to him.

  • villain612

    From Republican savior and future of the party to getting embarrassed during the primary and being unemployed come 2017. Marco has easily been the biggest loser of 2016.

    • Digitaldarling

      He has earned it. I hope we will never hear of him again after his massive failure.

    • James Brown

      Bigger than Jeb!(?)

  • docb

    One opt-in poll…even from the Economist is an outlier!


  • ArkonaRus

    Damn. And that’s not including all the Cruz supporters who also like Trump as a 2nd choice.

  • qwerty

    I’m starting to think Kasich is going to be the nominee out of a contested convention. If he wins Ohio, it will be hard for Trump to get a majority of delegates before the convention. All of the other establishment picks have plummeted once people paid attention to them. Kasich has mostly stayed below the radar which is probably a good thing. When the convention comes around, Republicans will be looking at the general election polls and see that out of Kasich, Cruz and Trump, Kasich is the only one with a chance at winning.

    • Maybe. But even if they scrap the 8-state rule, Kasich has to win more than Ohio to win the nomination in a contested convention. I know Lincoln was 4th on the first ballot in 1860, but that was a whole different era. That said, if Rubio drops out after Florida and Kasich stays in, his chances of picking up more states goes up and your scenario becomes much more likely. He does have the “I’m the only one acting like an adult” argument that could sway other delegates once they’re no longer bound.

      Edited it add: BUT only if he starts to win other states after Ohio. Yeah, the delegates will look to the General Election polls, but I can’t see them turning to a candidate who ONLY won his own state.

      • qwerty

        That rule expires the day before the convention when the rules committee meets to set new rules for this convention. Given the current state of things, it seems likely that they will either get rid of the rule or reduce the threshold enough to allow more than Trump/Cruz a chance.

        But yes, Kasich would have a stronger case if he actually starts winning some states.

  • Stormageddon Bloodstar

    A couple of important caveats: this is a likely voter poll, not a RV poll. Second, the only other recent LV poll had trump at 30%. I don’t care what methodology you use, that’s an insane spread where there is no MOE overlap. Which one is more accurate? No clue. But I would seriously wait for more polls, something isn’t right.

  • ErikDC

    The guy who had to PAY ACTORS to fill out the spartanly attended rally announcing his presidential campaign is going to win the Republican nomination.


  • Stormageddon Bloodstar

    Two more things, the poll removes Carson and that 7%. So the implication is that Carson’s support migrated to trump. The poll also adds up to 102% which isn’t a huge deal with rounding, but it still looks odd. (It is possible if most of the 4 candidates and undecided are +0.5 ).

  • Misleading Onion

    LOL, they’re going to nominate Donald Trump!

    • broccolid

      More like OMFG, IMO.

      • Digitaldarling

        Or: OMFG, WTF!?

  • frankelee

    I know it’s internet responsible to discuss Trump as a threat to win the Presidency, but since he’s not and we discuss as adults, just imagine how exciting this will be?! A whole political party splitting at the seems, their candidate a reality-TV-show punchline. A sweeping loss in November so deep that’ll it leave the intellectually bankrupt appeasers, who have been pretending their party isn’t a racist, backward, harmful mess, no choice but face the facts. I can’t wait.

    • Unsphexish

      While I do enjoy the fantasy you have given life in the above paragraph, I fear that expecting the folks who live in the Bubble to “face the facts” is really expecting a little too much from them. Remember, these are the people who think Obama is Kenyan, the economy hasn’t improved in 7 years, our standing overseas is worse than when W was President, and that tax cuts for the rich help the poor.

      • Digitaldarling

        Talk about living in.a fantasy world (his supporters, I mean). Surreal.

    • UnionLeague


    • drzaius

      You really think they will face it? I think it’s more likely they ignore it or embrace it. Or fall to pieces

  • abctefg

    Oh, dear lord.

  • UnionLeague

    I’d love to see Trump-Cruz as the Republican ticket. LMAO

  • Digitaldarling

    Pam Bondi has endorsed Trump. I guess she is gunning for the Veep spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if he picks her.

  • Ygorbla

    The most interesting thing about that is that it looks like Rubio’s supporters are going to Trump (and, to a lesser extent, Kasich), not Cruz, which would imply that Cruz’ plan of becoming the lone alternative to Trump is dead in the water.

  • Temptress

    Looks like the GOP is going all in with Trump.

  • YankeeClipper

    In Rubio’s victory speech tonight, he will announce he is suspending his campaign; “can’t beat success!”