Primary Turnout Means Little for General Election

Harry Enten: “Republican turnout is up and Democratic turnout is down in the 2016 primary contests so far. That has some Republicans giddy for the fall.”

“But Democrats shouldn’t worry. Republicans shouldn’t celebrate. As others have pointed out, voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.”

“Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome.”