Sanders Is Running Out of Open Primaries

First Read: “There’s another potential problem for Sanders as the Democratic contest heads into New York, which is Clinton’s home state but also where Sanders grew up: New York is a closed primary, which means that the independents that he won 72%-28% in Wisconsin won’t be able to vote. And the deadline to register as a New York Democrat ended on March 25. Of the 16 Democratic remaining primaries, just three are completely open contests.”

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  • BillBuckley

    See also

    Why Bernie Sanders Can’t Win

    Sorry, Sander’s fans.

    • Sanders winning or losing hasn’t been the question for months: he wasn’t going to. Probably since South Carolina.

      The question is, and has been, and will continue to be, why so many people are so content to celebrate the Democratic Party’s presumptive nomination of someone who wanted to bomb Syria before anyone else in the war cabinet was prepared to even seriously consider it, who supported NAFTA and the TPP, has taken millions of dollars in speaking fees from Wall Street Banks (and coincidentally opposes the reinstatement of glass-steagall), dismiss the $15 minimum wage as unrealistic (and then happily seized an opportunity to stand on a stage with the governor of New York to celebrate a $15 minimum wage — as if she’d done anything to deserve the credit), who voted for both the Iraq War and George W Bush’s border fence, and who once said the inner-city minority youth are “super-predators” who “need to be brought to heel.”

      Sooner or later, friend (sooner, I think), you are going to come to the painful realization that your preferred candidate is a convictionless, unprincipled, deeply cynical careerist *monster*. And when that day comes it won’t be sad for Bernie Sanders’ supporters. It will be sad for everyone on the planet.

      • Alki

        Someone who supported compromise in the 90s, realizes a 15 dollar minimum wage in Wyoming might not make sense, and never said what you’re implying in the way you’re implying it.

        Also, I’m dead tired of the Iraq war vote being used as a measure of proxy support for the entire fallout. No one thought Bush was going to stay there as he did. No one is saying they agree with how Bush ran the war. This was a vote for the president having the right to use the military, not for anything else.

        • MYMY

          Right. I believe she made a speech during that vote warning Bush NOT to go to war.

          And the authorization was supposed to be his “bargaining chip” with Saddam to begin with.

          • lostintheswamp

            i believe it was also authorization based on allowing the inspectors to finish their inspections to determine if there were indeed wmd … but the inspectors never got to do that as per hans blix …. but hillary started that war and she prosecuted the whole thing so damn badly, all by herself and then went ahead and created isis …. such a powerful woman should have been president in 2008, i think …

        • come on, dinghy is starting to admit his actual agenda and explain why he never really suports Sanders much but instead attacks history’s greatest monster 24/7.

          his “sad” tagline doesn’t even make any sense if all this is inevitable

          • Alki

            Seriously. Sometimes I wonder if he saw Kony 2012 and thought it said Clinton 2012

      • BillBuckley

        Jesus, you’re boring…

        • Alki

          Sir, you’re a better man than I.

          • abctefg

            On the one hand, I can understand wanting to defend a candidate / preferred ideology to the bitter end. Sometimes it’s tough to admit losses / weaknesses. And it’s cool to be different.
            But on the other hand, it’s frustrating as hell when he drops his screed on a post and doesn’t stick around for any thoughtful discussion.

          • zappa24

            He’s like Jeremy in that regard. Speaking of Jeremy, what ever happened to him?

          • Alki

            Exactly. I have no problem with people holding unfashinonable points of view, I’ve done it myself on here plenty. But I’d like to think I stuck around to discuss them and there have been several times I’ve been turned around on things.

            DIG is just nonsense though, he never engaged in substantive discussion so I resorted to silly pictures of Sandoval with a bird on his head quite a while ago. If we can’t have conversation, at least we can have a laugh.

      • dory

        I’m sure that she kicks dogs and spits tobacco, too. So tired of the ‘Bernie the Saint, Hillary the vile, corrupt Satan’ meme.

      • Stormageddon Bloodstar

        Monster? LOLWUT?

        Clinton understands the most basic convictions you need to be an effective leader: compromise, teamwork, loyalty.

        Maybe to you these are bad things, but if Sanders became president, he would be the most ineffectual president since Andrew Johnson. Sanders has shown nothing but palpable disdain for the Democratic Party. He has made no effort to help potential down-ballot allies be elected. He has made effort to reach out to the moderate grouo of voters who are critical to any sort of election effort. Most damningly, Sanders arrogance and elitist attitude would end up pushing Democrats to work with Republicans to neuter Sanders.

        Sanders, if elected, would have the paradoxical effect of shoving the country right during his tenure. America would be left further away from his Vision after he left office than when he took it. With the next president likely a Republican with a majority in the house and a filibuster proof majortiy in the Senate.

        And if Sanders does somehow wrest the nomination away, despite what the polls say, Sanders would probably lose to either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump. Clinton has held fire on Sanders during the entire primary season. She is trying not to give the Sanders supporters excuses to sit home pouting and whining about how unfairly their candidate was treated.

        Cruz and Trump, they will eviscerate Sanders. Image after image of Sanders and his honeymoon in theSoviet Union during the time Vladimir Putin was an officer in the KGB. Throw in quotes from Sanders and his glowing words for the Sandinistas and the FLMN. Add scare quotes about violent revolution. Yeah, Sanders would be lucky to get 40% of the vote nationwide, and would usher in decades of hard right policies and politics in the US.

        Be very grateful Sanders doesn’t somehow catch the proverbial car he’s chasing.

        Caveat: I’m not voting for Democrat or Republican in the Presidential or local races unless the margin is really close and the Democrats could win or there isn’t a libertarian in the race. In those cases I’d vote Democrat. Otherwise it’s Libertarian or I’ll write in my own name if there isn’t a Democrat or libertarian or green to pick. 🙂

        • she’s a monster i tell you, a bogeyman!

          she eats babies! she scares Cheney!

          fear her!

          hate her!

          (guy’s got issues)

          • Dale

            Worse, she’s republican in disguise!

        • i was with you until libertarian

        • ThatBadOpinionPerson

          Libertarian ? How do you get there ?

      • realnrh

        Is the Florida RepublicanParty still paying you? You never seem interested in answering about your past history as a paid Republican operative…

        • GatorLegal1

          Sanders was here in Gainesville a few weeks ago and Dave refused to answer a very simple question: Did he go to the Sanders rally, or not? Nothing but crickets.

      • DT wxrisk

        LOL a new low in delusional

      • Chris Leatherman

        Having gone back and reread your posts, I think you are nothing more a Republican operative attempting to sow discord. If that ‘s the case, you suck at it.

        • GatorLegal1

          That’s exactly what he is, and it’s why he won’t respond. I know it, and he knows it.

          • Chris Leatherman

            Yep. I take statements from witnesses and suspects in my job as a police officer and then spend time evaluating them for evidentiary value. Noting major, mostly low end fraud cases against the government.

            Anyway, he struck me as someone playing an over zealous Sanders supporter and basically caricatured such folks in an effort to create dissention between those of us who are Clinton supporters and those here who are for Sanders. What finally clued me that this guy is probably a Republican is when he wrote a day or two back that he hoped Clinton would be indicted. I work in Asheville, which is Sanders country, and I know several Sanders supporters here. Not one believes Hillary should be indicted. That is a Republican wet dream.

            I have two pieces of news for him 1) Clinton will not be indicted and 2) if Sanders is our nominee I will transfer my loyalty to him.

      • Dodgson

        To be fair to TPP… that is not a domestic trade program, the entire reason for it is a geopolitical battle for influence vs. China. Agree with it or not but you do need to discuss it in light of the reason why we negotiated it.

      • Dale

        Well, Dave, you sound like a sound bite from my brother-in-law and I do not buy it. Hillary Clinton is the true Democrat with the intelligence and experience to lead our diverse nation. She is not a loud, broken record (like Sanders) with no actual plans to implement what he espouses. HRC gets my support by knocking on doors, phone calling, donations, voting, and writing in blogs to help you and others like you wakeup to reality.

      • lostintheswamp

        yeah dave … you know what else passed into ny law along with $15 min. wage? … family leave, and you, nor anyone else can deny clinton’s efforts for that over the years … so, she had every right to stand right where she was standing …

      • freeopinions

        Amazing how Democrats are now supporting, rationalizing and apologizing for everything they used to be against, and calling it “compromise,” like caving in and adopting the opponents ideology is a good thing…

      • NeuralQuirk

        In July of 2015 Bernie Sanders made a flat commitment that he would not run as an independent in this year’s presidential election. To do so, he correctly surmised, would guarantee the election of a right-wing Republican. But circumstances are changing and the question that loyal democrats should now be asking themselves – and Sanders – is whether there are any circumstances on the Republican side that might cause him to disregard his pledge – sore-loser laws notwithstanding.

        We know Sanders regards the Democratic Party with disdain; and even now, after he’s essentially hijacked the party for his own convenience, he refuses to commit to helping down-ballot Democrats in fund-raising. In his heart-of-hearts, I have no doubt his fondest wish would be to destroy the existing Party; rename it Democratic-Socialist or some such, and replace our platform with a full-blown socialist ideology.

        From Sanders perspective, the Universe is crying out for him to carry the fight on through the general: He has tapped into an apparent unending source of money and, miraculously, is considered a cool dude by the kids who inflate his crowds, if not the voting booth.

        Nature herself is enthralled by his candidacy; why else would she have sent a tiny bird to flit about his sainted head?

        For Sanders, a back-bencher his entire Congressional career, these “signs” are surely unmistakable: It is his time – his destiny – and any promise or commitment he may have made before his epiphany are, understandably, null and void.

        But what of his stated belief that his independent run would elect the Republican? That analysis was made on the assumption that the general election race would consist of one Republican and one Democrat; but such a simple scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely.

        If Donald Trump is denied the Republican nomination, who among us doubts that he would then run as an independent for revenge against the Republican “Establishment?”

        The Republican vote thus split – and the Sander’s delusion, based on current polling, that he is the stronger candidate against any Republican – I think the Vermont Senator will answer destiny’s call and reveal his lack of allegiance to anyone but himself.

        The above scenario has been called “speculative pap” by one critic. Perhaps so, but what is undeniable is that Bernie Sanders damages our Democratic nominee every time he repeats his slanderous innuendoes of corruption on Clinton’s part. I hope his adult supporters, the loyal Democrats among them, see through his sheep’s clothing and end their support of the interloper.

        • GatorLegal1

          The biggest issue I have with Sanders is that he seldom talks about all the tremendously hard-fought gains Democrats have worked so hard for over the past 55 years, let alone the last 7. If he wants to be the Democratic nominee for President, he should get with the program and support Democratic ideals – he can pick whichever ones he likes best to talk about – and should be touting them forwards, backwards, and all week long. And twice on Sundays. But he doesn’t. He just rails against a system that he feels is irrevocably broken without telling us exactly what he plans to replace it with. Sanders may be a very good man, and no doubt many of the things he’s saying need to be said. But in my opinion that’s not party leadership, that’s opportunism.

          • nanotab

            This is rather like Karl Marx, who was good at pointing out some bad things about capitalism but said almost nothing about how communism would work. So after the Bolshevik revolution, Marx’s guide to DIY communism was absent. Instead the Soviet Union got Lenin and Stalin, and we all know how THAT turned out. Badly.

    • spiff

      Also the onslaught of negative ads that is being directed at Trump will soon be directed at Hillary, or Bernie, if he ever had a chance of winning the nomination. I would actually fear just how bad things would get for him, because I genuinely think he is a decent guy. So much red meat has been gathered on him, imo, that even I could put together a program that would send him down in flames ( And i would vote for the guy if the situation were reversed). Being positive, noble is that is, unfortunately, cannot beat the slime that will come from the republican right. It is sad that I have to think this way, but life has a way of teaching one to be pragmatic.

    • KurtBusiek

      Sanders winning or losing hasn’t been the question for months; it’s Clinton winning that Dave can’t stand.

      For other Sanders supporting insisting Sanders is going to win, well, they have a somewhat different take.

  • RobSolf

    Win or lose, he helps keep the HRC team on their toes. It’s not enough that she win the general, she needs to humiliate the s*&t out of the GOP. Once they’re done humiliating themselves, that is…

    • Alki

      And she needs to have been attacked as possible before going in? The entire point of it is they can’t hit her on wall street the way bernie can. You’re missing the fact it’s a whole different dynamic! 🙂

      • RobSolf

        They’ll still hit her on it, while taking the exact same money. She’d best be working on her defense sooner than later.

        • Alki

          I think she has it, I think she just doesn’t feel the need to play cards earlier than she has to. I suspect we’ll see it as soon as there’s evidence it matters, which may be never.

          • dory

            CNN reported last night that Clinton’s campaign spokesperson said they’re ‘taking the gloves off.’ That’s okay as long as she focuses on how Sanders is going to get his promises accomplished. But she needs to be careful.

          • MYMY

            All the material they will need is contained in that Daily News interview where his responses were as illogical, uninformed and downright ludicrous re this question. “There must be some…” [laws the DOJ might have used to prosecute Wall Street].

      • wymurph

        I think we have certainly reached the point where the incremental value of Sanders’ attacks “toughening” Clinton is negative. Stepping back, the fight has been nothing like as vicious as it might be. This is to Sanders’ credit (but not to Bernie bros), as he is in the position of trying to take down the front runner. Clinton, in particular, has an incentive to play with kid gloves to avoid alienating Sanders’ supporters further. Must be frustrating–and it is beginning to show.

        Having said all that, the campaign theme (or implication) that Clinton is bought and paid for and essentially just another lackey of Wall Street is not helpful. Nor is it fair.

        • Alki

          Exactly. It backs her into one corner when she could be, at worst, backing into another. It’s hurting her in the general at this point.

        • ThatBadOpinionPerson

          Politics ain’t bean bag.

          But, Sanders character attacks on HRC are problematic for the Democratic party at large, where Sanders is leading a sort of purity revolt. He’s also sending out ridiculous celebrities who consistently belittle both Obama and stalwart Democratic voters.

          While spinning up this acrimony is useful for Sanders, it continues to put his supporters against HRC supporters, making it more difficult to see the meaningful issues HRC supports.

  • southerndemnut

    Not to mention this that has been circulating on social media: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/05/this-new-york-daily-news-interview-was-pretty-close-to-a-disaster-for-bernie-sanders/?postshare=8341459883372968&tid=ss_tw . I read the full transcript I was having trouble following the trains of thought. It was a rather Trump-like performance that was a little disturbing. I realize that most of Sanders campaign is based on broad themes rather than specific actions but it is surprising none the less from a veteran legislator.

    • d v

      That was positively painful.

    • ThatBadOpinionPerson
    • DCDemocrat

      I thought he was having a Reagan-esque senior moment.

      • MYMY

        No, my impression is that’s all he’s really got. He’s all hat and no cattle.

        • lostintheswamp

          i agree … i think he has just never worried about the details, or it certainly seemed that way in that interview ….

    • richo123

      The contrast with Clinton the policy wonk is rather stark.
      I also think that in the healthcare debates in the 2008 primary Obama had way more command of detail.

      Perhaps that was because Obama seriously thought he could win.

      • lostintheswamp

        i think obama is just more intellectual and cerebral … i think his mother was a phd, but at any rate he talked a lot about her getting up at 5 am to make him do school work … and i also think, like clinton, he’s a work horse when it comes to understanding everything in whatever area he focuses on … constitutional law is probably one of the toughest areas of law too, and that’s where he excelled …. this is not a knock on bernie – i have other reasons to do that – but bernie is a big picture guy which is great for the vision … but it’s the detail people that get the stuff done in the end …. ask steven spielberg who has all the vision – but also the brain to realize that it takes other talents to bring them to fruition …

    • Alki

      I mean this genuinely and not as a hit to him, I wonder if this is the hypothyroidism. It’s way out of character and he shouldn’t be forgetting these things.

      • ThatBadOpinionPerson

        I don’t have any idea or intuition on any sort of medical diagnosis, nor would I suggest that. I think the issue is far less sophisticated in nature.

        My view is Sanders doesn’t care about the nuance of economic policy, let alone the incredible complexity required for the regulation of financial services in the United States and international subsidiaries that might allow them to skirt proposed laws.

        When you listen to him in a debate, he is consistent about observations. He doesn’t worry about the design of policies, just more about stating the end goal. So, rather than discuss the difficulty in crafting banking regulation that would have the desired affect of preventing speculation in complex areas w/o proper collateral… it is “break up the big banks!”

        As though breaking up large banks would somehow fix the underlying issue. This has played out over and over again in debates v. HRC (who tries to go into more detail, tries to remind that Lehman was a pure Ibank, reminds that AIG wasn’t regulated either and was the counter-party to a number of banks etc….).

        The same is true of trade policy. Trade is bad for workers!

        etc.

        • embo66

          In that Daily News interview, Bernie kept saying that “free trade needs to be fair trade.” The ideas he proffered for doing that were establishing environmental standards and labor standards that other countries would have to adopt in order to trade with us, etc.

          The DN board didn’t bring it up, but those standards are in the TPP and are exactly what makes it a different kind of trade deal from what’s typically gone before. I was stunned that Bernie didn’t seem to know that — or to have any real argument, then, for why the TPP was “bad.”

          He was even worse on corporations. My god, even I could have given better answers to what is the moral rot / damage they’ve done to America than Bernie did! Nor did he have ANY credible response to the question the DN kept trying to ask about the ramifications — investment portfolios, job losses, etc. — that his “immediate” breakup of the big banks would have on the larger economy, not to mention individuals.

          • southerndemnut

            This is one issue that both Trump and Sanders have been using to considerable fanfare. Trump is primarily posturing a protectionist argument as a way to retain jobs, especially manufacturing ones, that have left the country. I have yet to fully understand how Sanders will accomplish the same argument beyond what you have mentioned, which is essentially a protectionist argument using different standards. The problem with a lot of candidates that live and die on hot button issues is that the actual practical realities do not match the rhetoric.

          • ThatBadOpinionPerson

            Indeed – protectionism — listen to Sanders rhetoric on the 2007 immigration reform bill.

          • ThatBadOpinionPerson

            The same is true of trade, health insurance elimination, this would be murder in a general election. Any ad team with an economist would be able to craft convincing ads that the Sanders revolution is for the nationalization of full sectors of the economy.

          • embo66

            They don’t even have to go that far. Just run economists’ estimates of how much every individual’s taxes would go up to pay for all his programs.

            To be fair, Bernie himself doesn’t shrink from these numbers and in fact, lays out just what estimated new taxes would be required to pay for each of his main ideas. But most of America hasn’t heard any of this yet and — even if they support the ideas — once GOP ad teams get through with portraying them in the most negative light . . . many of them will balk.

    • yeah i can’t imagine hillary skipping her homework or phoning it in that way– maybe getting too deeply into facts and plans is deeply corrupting to a pure vision of political revolution?

      • ThatBadOpinionPerson

        Unfortunately, for HRC she has her own set of rules from journalists, and even folks in the Democratic Party. So, she hyper-parses her rhetoric in an annoying way, but that’s largely b/c if she slips up she gets hammered by journalists.

        Sanders could say all sorts of curious things without getting the same criticism in the past, like stating that Jane does the taxes, and they’ve been busy so no idea on taxes…

        Tons of policy position inconsistencies.

        However, journalists are gradually beginning to hit these statements harder, and I think that’s going to be difficult Sanders’ to deal with given his personality and the habits he’s developed during the course of this campaign.

        • ThatBadOpinionPerson

          Big problem I have with HRC. She needs to find poetry she is OK with, to campaign with.

          • dylan111

            As a teacher, Hillary reminds me of the really smart and earnest girl in the class who gets the top grade on the test so often that everyone takes her for granted. In the end, governing well is more about understanding politics and policy than being poetic about your ideas.

          • dory

            Yes, she’s not the most likable kid in class, but when the class needs something to be done, she does it.

        • Exactly. Some women I know who have persevered in hostile work places, have told me they recognize that walking-on-eggshells aspect to Hillary’s performance and that they applaud her grit and persistent accomplishment against that headwind.

          And yes Sanders is getting more scrutiny as Trump finally is as well, given that they are asking to be taken seriously.

          • ThatBadOpinionPerson

            I know exactly what it is like to have hyper-critical bosses ready to pounce on imprecise language. It makes you a stronger at analysis, but it is incredibly stressful.

    • embo66

      I’m thrilled to hear it’s making the social rounds. People need to realize that Sanders appears to ONLY have those broad themes — and very, very little idea as to how to make them become a reality.

  • Berkshire_Boy

    OK, so Bernie gets to give his version of “The Dream Shall Never Die” speech at the convention. Then what? He keeps raising a lot of money, largely by impugning HRC’s integrity with innuendo. How exactly does that help the Dems win in November? Isn’t it about time he started spreading that cash around to help the down ballot Dems that any Dem president is going to need in order to advance even a modest agenda come February?

    • ThatBadOpinionPerson

      He can do what he wants clearly. My hope is more interviews like the NY Daily News come out.
      It’s important more of his supporters realize how flawed he is as a candidate, in his own words.

      I’m not even sure that would break through to some of them.

      • MYMY

        HRC is circulating the whole transcript to her supporters in emails, with the choice bits highlighted.

        • dory

          Great idea. There’s an awful lot to think about of ole Bernie.

        • lostintheswamp

          bernie just claimed, in a speech in penna that hillary said he isn’t qualified to be president, and then went on a rant about how ‘she’ is not qualified because … well, you know, wall street, super pacs blahblahblah …..

          hillary has never said he isn’t qualified, so that’s just a lie …. but, more than that,
          i think that he has just gone over the line and democrats – ones who’ve been dems for more than two minutes – are going to be extremely unhappy at this …..

          i think hillary’s comments about that dreadful interview have completely gotten under his skin and now we get to see how he responds to the stress of real campaigning and it is not a good picture … and i’m just going to say it, but i saw this coming a long time ago when everyone was thinking that bernie was sweet uncle bernie and would always be sweet uncle bernie ….

      • Carlos Machina

        The Bernie supporters I know won’t let any facts touch them. He’s their dream candidate, and they don’t want to wake up.

      • lostintheswamp

        from what i’ve read, it would not break through with a whole lot of his supporters …. the reality may be different though …

  • alansnipes

    Oh no! Bernie gained 11 delegates on Hillary last night. She’s doomed!

  • Dodgson

    Sanders Ran Out of Open Primaries and Caucuses

    FIFY

  • Douglass Parker

    I get a little tired of all these “Bernie can’t win” stories. Seems pretty desperate on the part of the Clinton supporters. Clinton’s support is collapsing (much like Trump’s by the way). Bernie can win. Granted it’s an uphill battle. If Bernie wins New York, all bets are off. If Clinton manages to hang on, I’ll support her, of course. But I’m pulling for Bernie.

    • John Smith

      “Clinton’s support is collapsing”

      Baloney. Look at polls out of NY, PA, and CA in the last 48 hours. Clinton has double-digit leads in all three states.

      • Douglass Parker

        It’s not quite as cut and dry as you say. Quinnipiac had Clinton up 42 points in PA in January. Their latest poll has the lead down to 6%. In New York, the lead has been cut to 40% to 12%. You are right about CA, Clinton still has a pretty big lead there. But it is worth noting that Sanders was once behind by 30 to 40 points in Wisconsin and wound up winning by 13 points. He has shown a rather remarkable ability to close the polling gap rather quickly once he goes to state and begins campaigning. Furthermore, the two latest national polls show that Clinton’s lead has pretty much evaporated. McClatchy/Marist has Clinton 47% – Sanders 49%. IBD/TIPP has Clinton 45% – Sanders 44%. And there is no question at all that Sanders polls better as a general election candidate than Clinton. Perhaps my use of the word “collapsing” was too strong. A better word might be “dwindling”. None of us has a crystal ball. I don’t know if Sanders’ recent momentum will be enough to overcome Hilary’s early lead. But Clinton is by no means inevitable. See also http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/hillary-clintons-support-_b_9579544.html

        • John Smith

          You’re peddling more fiction. The earlier polls you cite were registered voters. The later polls are likely voters. Apples and oranges. There is no Sanders momentum.

          • Douglass Parker

            If you said that Sanders recent momentum will not be enough to overcome Clinton’s lead, you would have some credibility. That may be true. But when you say “there is no Sanders momentum”, it is you who are peddling fiction. That is simply wrong and a fundamentally dishonest statement. There is no analysis that can be made that does not show Bernie is gaining on Clinton. Even if you were correct that the change is ENTIRELY due to the shift in polling likely voters vs. registered voters, that would still mean trouble for Clinton, as it would show her incapable of getting her supporters to actually vote for her. If Clinton hangs on and wins, I will congratulate her supporters and vote for her in the general election. But please, can we at least be honest? Sanders has won all of the recent contests except Arizona and has pulled even with Clinton in the national polls. He also consistently polls stronger in the general election against Trump or Cruz. This is the DEFINITION of momentum.

          • John Smith

            See 538 and why momentum is a fiction. You’re looking at polls through rose-colored glasses.

          • Douglass Parker

            538? Please provide a link. I agree that believing that Sanders can overcome Clinton’s lead requires some optimism and may not happen. But Clinton supporters seem positively desperate to convince Sanders supporters to give up. 1955 delegates remain to be chosen. Clinton’s lead among pledged delegates is 1280-1030. Super delegates are free to change their vote. Why should we give up? I would tend to agree that Clinton is still favored at this point, but she is by no means inevitable. I will wait and read your 538 link before commenting further, but it seems ludicrous to dismiss momentum as “a fiction” when Sanders is winning contests all over the place and pulling even with Clinton in the polls. I mean, what WOULD constitute momentum in your opinion? See also http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/hillary-clintons-support-_b_9579544.html

          • John Smith

            538 is the most accurate poll analyst in politics. He’s legendary.

            http://fivethirtyeight.com/

          • Douglass Parker

            I know who Nate Silver is. So which article says momentum is a fiction? The closest thing I could find was an article saying it is difficult for Sanders to overtake Clinton’s lead, which I’ve already acknowledged as true. Another national poll out just today, Atlantic/PRRI has Sanders over Clinton, 47-46%. Real Clear Politics averages all the major polls, In December, they had Clinton up by 27 points. Now her lead is down to 4.8%. I honestly would not be surprised if Sanders pulled ahead very soon. Sanders is not about to throw in the towel, Nor should he.

    • dylan111

      Pull all you want, but the fact is that Clinton is at 108% of her delegate target rate so far. Bernie Sanders would have to win every remaining race by nearly 60% to pull ahead of her in the delegate count, and that’s not going to happen.

      http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

    • Alki

      There’s very little objective evidence that her support is “collapsing.” Her numbers nationally might be down 2-3 percent from a month ago. Her numbers in NY over the past four months are 55,55,54,53. She’s up almost 1700 delegates to 1000. Some betting markets have Bernie’s chances of being the Nominee near Biden’s chances. It’s very difficult to envision a scenario where he wins 60% of the remaining delegates without her having some event that makes her unelectable, and in that case there’s a strong chance Biden would step in. It’s just very hard to see how it could happen.

    • lostintheswamp

      things can change, but i’m doubting they’ll change enough for bernie especially when you see the polling in the next states that go this month … but supporting the candidate of your choice til the end is a not a bad thing …

  • John Smith

    Interesting trivia: Bernie Sanders has won zero closed primary states in 2016. Hillary Clinton has won them all. The next five out of six states to vote are closed primary states. 🙂

    • lostintheswamp

      thank you for that … i lose track of these things so it’s nice to have someone who knows this stuff and shares it …

    • Lumpenproletariat

      That’s kind of a weird metric to use. There’s only been three closed primary states thus far.

      • zappa24

        You were wrong on pretty much all of those. The only one you got partly right is New Hampshire, which is a semi-closed primary. The rest are all caucuses.

        • Lumpenproletariat

          Yes, I misread the original post. My post was edited about a minute later.

      • John Smith

        Another bit of interesting trivia: in open primary states, Clinton holds her own among registered Democrats and gets as many votes as Sanders and, in certain states, even more.

    • freeopinions

      What’s interesting about that to me is that in open primaries, independents can vote, but in closed primaries they cannot. Independents will elect Sanders if he is the nominee. They will defeat Clinton if he is not.

      • ThatBadOpinionPerson

        I’m not sure how you jump to your conclusion that Independents who choose to vote on the Democratic primary side will vote for Sanders, but not HRC.

        • freeopinions

          How do you explain the huge crowds for Sanders and the wins in open primaries? One Clinton supporter on another site blamed crossover Republicans. Is that who you think is going to voting or Clinton in November?

          • lostintheswamp

            they say the best things in life are free … i don’t think that works for opinions …

      • lostintheswamp

        rubbish …

      • CalStateDisneyland

        Yes that makes a lot of sense. LOL. They would vote for Sanders but their second choice is Ted Cruz and defeat Hilary Clinton.

      • John Smith

        According to your imaginary polls in your head. In reality, Clinton is trashing Trump in actual general election polls.

        • freeopinions

          The imaginary polls are in your head. Clinton loses to Trump in the real polls, Sanders beats all or any Republican.

          • John Smith

            Clinton is far ahead of Trump in current polls.

          • freeopinions

            April 6, 2016.

            In head-to-head general election matchups:

            Kasich buries Clinton 51 – 35 percent;

            Kasich tops Sanders 46 – 40 percent;

            Clinton gets 45 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;

            Clinton ties Cruz 43 – 43 percent;

            Sanders tops Trump 48 – 40 percent;

            Sanders beats Cruz 46 – 38 percent.

            https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2341

          • John Smith

            National head-to-head polls are meaningless. You need to look at the swing states, where the race will be decided. Hillary clobbers Trump in every single swing state. Her lead will likely meet or exceed Obama’s landslide win over McCain in 2008.

          • freeopinions

            You said Sanders wins in the “imaginary polls in my head.” I posted the latest Quinnipiac Poll. You reiterated, with nothing to back it up, your opinion that Clinton “clobbers” Trump claiming the poll I referenced was “meaningless.” Now you say, again with no proof, that there will be a landslide Clinton victory over Trump.

            All the polls I have read for months disagree, and Sanders continues to win in primaries where the parties do not control who gets to vote. It has been estimated that fully 25% of Sanders supporters will abandon the Democrats if Clinton is the nominee. If Clinton is your dream candidate, prepare for four years of Republican governance.

          • freeopinions

            “When ABC News pollsters asked Wisconsin Democratic Primary voters, “Which candidate inspires you more about the future of the country?” they named Sanders by a 21 point margin (59-38%). So why didn’t he carry the state by that much? One principal reason is surely the fact that when asked “Who would have the better chance to defeat Donald J. Trump in November?” those same voters gave Clinton an 11 point edge (54-43%) – a position for which there is no evidence, although you would never know it from the day-to-day news coverage of the race.

            “The great open secret of this campaign has been the fact that in match-ups pitting Sanders and Clinton against the various hypothetical Republicans it has almost invariably been Sanders who polled stronger. Eight national polls conducted since mid-March all show him beating Trump by a greater margin than Clinton does. His average is 16.5 points, hers 10.5. The same is true with Cruz, whom Sanders beats by an average of 10.1%, compared with 2.8% for Clinton. Kasich actually beats Clinton by 6.6% in the polls; Sanders beats him by 2.7%. And this has been going on for months.”
            http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/04/08/we-need-explode-myth-hillary-clinton-stronger-candidate-and-we-need-do-it-fast

            These are the facts.

  • Ann Mars

    i’m crying over what has happened to our beautiful country where a socialist and a sell out that allows others to die in the night without aid and takes money from foreign lobbyists and on top of that puts our whole country at risk without a care are candidates for our presidency. God Save America!

    • GatorLegal1

      But enough about Trump and Cruz….

      • Ann Mars

        they keep talking lies about what Trump has said because the corrupt are desperate to keep him out of office because they know truth will defeat them all and change our country around to a beautiful country again. How very sad indeed that truth is no longer paramount only vote swaying propaganda is. Trump is the ONLY candidate who hasn’t LIED to date! How sad how very very sad! God Save America!

        • lostintheswamp

          i think you’re having us on, here ….. funny girl – or boy …

    • Lumpenproletariat

      Cool story. So are you voting for the Dominionist or the pseudo-fascist?

      • Ann Mars

        you fell for propaganda. try researching the truth and then you can know the truth. you just have fallen for the BS of the corrupt or you are part of it. Either way sad sad for beautiful America once the land of the free now becoming the land of the diseased thinkers of propagandists! BTW propaganda was started by Hitler that our media and politicians have adopted it is truly sick and sad! God Save America!

        • Lumpenproletariat

          Buddy, you have issues that are best worked out between you and your psychologist, not posted stream-of-consciousness style on the internet.

          Could you define the period of time you consider America to have been the “land of the free?”

    • lostintheswamp

      cry a river and get whatever you have wrong with you out of your system cos it sounds kinda scary …