GOP Primary Calendar Shifts Trump’s Way

David Wasserman: “Add it all up, and Trump has dominated three of the four quadrants, losing only HighRed. Trump’s two largest leads have come in the two blue quadrants, thanks to Cruz’s weakness there. That’s a drastic departure from our pre-primary expectations about ‘blue zone’ GOP voters last fall, and it’s critical to understanding why Trump has a built-in edge in the remaining 15 contests.”

“If we use the same technique to divide the areas represented by the 2,472 delegates that will go to the Republican convention in Cleveland into four quadrants, we can see that New York’s primary marked a sharp left turn on the calendar. From New York through the end of the primaries, 51 percent of delegates will be awarded in HighBlue — Cruz’s weakest quadrant — a huge 32 percentage point jump from primaries before New York.”