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For most of the last decade, we’ve witnessed the Republican party coming apart. This year’s contentious GOP presidential primary has only widened the fault lines.
An interesting new strategy memo from Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg argues that the party is actually facing a three-front civil war.
Donald Trump and his supporters blame the GOP establishment for allowing America to become more racially diverse.
“He is the skunk at the garden party with his overt racism and hostility to immigrants and Muslims. But GOP base voters are race-conscious and anti-immigrant, as they have made clear at the state level since Pete Wilson in 1994. They say they want a nominee who will fight against the growing immigrant diversity in the country. Donald Trump has captured the base’s anger with GOP leaders who’ve failed to slow illegal immigration and America’s growing multiculturalism.”
Ted Cruz and religious conservatives blame the GOP establishment for failing to slow the “liberal agenda.”
The Evangelical and religiously observant base of the party was stunned by the Supreme Court’s legalization of gay marriage. They want their leaders to defend traditional marriage, make abortion illegal in the states, and deny protections to the LGBTQ community. It is on abortion where the GOP-controlled states have pressed the furthest against the national consensus. That is why Ted Cruz emerged as the 2nd strongest candidate and the only other candidate who could have plausibly been nominated by this Republican Party.”
Moderates blame the GOP establishment for no longer listening to them.
“The moderates are a stunning 31 percent of the party base, and they are heavily college-educated and socially liberal. They are conservatives on immigration, regulation, taxes and national security, but as a college-educated majority, they accept the science and urgency of addressing climate change. And most importantly, they are the one bloc that accepts the sexual revolution. That changes everything. Two-thirds say abortion should be legal in all or most cases and three-quarters say the party should accept gay marriage and move on.”
I’d argue that there’s also a fourth front being waged with the GOP establishment over foreign affairs and trade. Trump is leading that fight as well.
Overall, Greenberg provides a useful framework for understanding the current state of the Republican party.
Trump was able to win the nomination because he’s led the fight on two of these fronts with his positions against immigration and free trade. He’s also trusted by the moderate elements of the party who are not concerned about same-sex marriage, abortion and transgender bathrooms. Trump only seems out of step with religious conservatives but he nonetheless did well with that voting bloc in the primaries.
It’s truly Trump’s party now.
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