When Predictions Go Bad

Matt Lewis: “As of this week, Nate Silver — FiveThirtyEight founder, political prognosticator, and wunderkind — is giving Donald Trump just a 25 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in November. I’m considering putting a few benjamins down on Trump.”

“Keep in mind, it’s not just the Trump nomination that he botched. In recent years, he has gotten Super Bowls wrong, the Oscars wrong, the 2014 Scottish independence referendum wrong and the 2015 U.K. elections wrong.”

“We all make mistakes, of course. The difference is that Silver’s entire raison d’etre — and he has been wildly celebrated for this — rests on his ability to make picks. But really, his track record for the last, I don’t know, four years, is spotty on some pretty big things. Now, if Silver were known for his flowery prose or for cultivating terrific sources on the House Budget Committee, we might forgive him for botching a big prediction. But this is his bread and butter. This is what he does.”