Why the Election May Be a Disaster for Paul Ryan

David Wasserman: “At the moment, the likeliest outcome seems like a Democratic gain of five to 20 seats… However, don’t underestimate the effect that Democrats cutting the GOP majority in half might have. It could have big consequences for governing. Back in October, we predicted that Paul Ryan wouldn’t have it any easier than John Boehner did when it comes to fundamental spending and debt votes, thanks to rebellions from the very conservative House Freedom Caucus.”

“If Ryan were to lose half his 30-seat majority, he could be the last backstop against a Democratic White House and Senate. But Ryan would also likely be forced to reach across the aisle for Democratic votes even more often than Boehner did, giving the minority more leverage and possibly branding him as the GOP’s RINO-in-chief for good.”

“For reasons beyond simply the Trump conundrum, the speakership is looking less and less like the job Ryan signed up for eight months ago.”