Can Downballot Republicans Run Away from Trump?

First Read: “There’s one little problem with this kind of strategy: There usually aren’t enough parachutes to go around for a party that loses a presidential contest, especially when it comes to Senate races. Since 2004, 80% of the Senate races that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report designated as a Toss Up before Election Day (20 out of 25) broke the same way the presidential race did in that particular state. So for every Dean Heller who won Nevada’s Senate race in 2012 despite Barack Obama’s victory in the state in the presidential election, there are four Norm Colemans (who lost his Senate seat in Minnesota in ’08) or Scott Browns (who lost in Massachusetts in ’12). And that history is particularly important this election season, when the Cook Report says there are five presidential battleground states — Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania — also holding Toss Up Senate races.”

“But there is one notable exception to this trend, and it happened the last time a Clinton was on the presidential ballot in the general election. In 1996, despite Bill Clinton’s eight-point victory over Bob Dole, Republicans actually PICKED UP Senate seats. Of course, you could argue that the country today is much more polarized — and less likely to ticket-split — than it was 20 years ago.”