Democrats Still Unlikely to Take House

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “This week we’re moving four House race ratings toward the Democrats (descriptions of those changes are below). That brings the overall House tally to 226 Safe/Likely/Leaning Republican seats, 193 Safe/Likely/Leaning Democratic seats, and 16 Toss-ups (14 of which are held by Republicans). The House is currently 247-188 Republican, so if one splits the Toss-ups eight apiece, the House would be 234-201 Republican, giving Democrats a net gain of 13 seats (and matching the makeup of the House following the 2012 election).”

“That squares with our current projection: a 10-15 seat Democratic gain, which even at the high end would still be just half of the 30 seats the Democrats need to win the House.”