Democrats Slightly Favored to Take Senate

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “It seems like only yesterday when the Republicans took over the U.S. Senate. Actually, nearly two years have passed since that big moment, when the GOP gained nine seats and took a 54-46 majority (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats) after eight years of Democratic control.”

“But this may prove to be the shortest period of control for a party since the early 2000s. From the vantage point of Labor Day, it appears as though that 2014 flip could become a 2016 flop, and on Nov. 8, Democrats have a good chance to grab at least a tie (broken by the new vice president) and possibly a majority of as many as several seats. We let the Senate races settle over the summer but summer’s effectively over — and we are making eight different ratings changes this week. Many favor Democrats, but a few favor Republicans. The takeaway is that as we head into the stretch run of the campaign, the Democrats seemingly hold a narrow edge in the race for a majority. But that majority could be quite small, small enough that Republicans could be poised to wipe it out in 2018, perhaps leading to another bare minimum stint in the majority.”