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With exactly three weeks to go until Election Day, many Republican strategists are increasingly convinced the presidential election is over, and they are trying to find ways to keep their Senate candidates from getting tossed out in a possible Hillary Clinton wave.
That means GOP candidates will try to run a purely local campaign while distancing themselves as far as possible from Trump. And if that’s not enough, they’ll campaign explicitly by saying they’ll be a check on a Clinton presidency.
Bloomberg tried to identify which voters were less likely to support the party’s nominee than his or her party registration would indicate.
The model is quite sophisticated and uses data from 82,000 interviews in order develop a statistical profile of each candidate’s backers. It weighs hundreds of variables from individual voting histories to past consumer activity in order to determine how much voters resemble typical Clinton or Trump supporters.
The table below summarizes the states they found that have the most Clinton voters who are also predicted to vote for the Republican Senate candidate.
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