Clinton Remains the Favorite

Stuart Rothenberg: “A final flurry of quality polls in the next few days should give us more of an idea where the race stands. But even then, turnout is likely to be the key — with the focus on three important demographic groups that prefer Clinton: blacks, Latinos and younger voters.”

“If those groups turn out in numbers comparable to 2012, Clinton will win, possibly comfortably. If they don’t, an upset can’t be ruled out.”

“The bottom line: Clinton remains the favorite (in both the popular and electoral votes), though a less comfortable one than a week ago. The fight for the Senate looks like a toss-up, with Democrats still having more paths than the GOP to a majority. And, the House is not in play.”