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The special election for Montana’s at-large congressional seat hasn’t captured the national attention like similar contests in Georgia and Kansas, but there are some late signs it could be a close race.
Donald Trump won the state by 20-points in last fall’s election but Roll Call now says “an upset is within the realm of possibility.”
There isn’t enough evidence that the candidates are neck-and-neck to justify a Tossup rating, but there is enough uncertainty with special election turnout, and with previous special election races as a backdrop, for us to change our Inside Elections rating of the Montana race from Likely Republican to Tilts Republican.
Another thing making the race interesting: The New York Times reports the GOP candidate, Greg Gianforte (R), is fully embracing Trump in his race against Rob Quist (D):
At a time when President Trump is mired in the most heated scandal of his short administration — with questions swirling around a Russia investigation and the firing of James B. Comey as director of the F.B.I. — Mr. Gianforte is barreling toward a special election with the full-throated endorsement of the president. And voting day, which is May 25, will be watched nationally for any signs that Mr. Trump, his tactics or his style of politics are wearing thin with voters who overwhelmingly supported him in November.
A reporter following the race tells us that if Libertarian Mark Wist approaches 7 percentage points, Quist has a real shot.
Even though the election isn’t until Thursday, the Missoulian reports that more than 30% of registered voters had already returned absentee ballots. This is an early indication that turnout will be relatively high for a special election.
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