The Obama-Trump Voters Swung the Election

Nate Cohn: “The story of the 2016 presidential election is simple. Donald J. Trump made huge gains among white voters without a college degree. His gains were large enough to cancel out considerable losses among well-educated white voters and a decade of demographic shifts.”

“There are questions and details still up for debate: whether Democrats can win back these voters, and how to think about and frame the decline in black turnout. But postelection surveys, pre-election surveys, voter file data and the actual results all support the main story: The voters who switched from President Obama to Mr. Trump were decisive.”

Key finding: “They had soured on Obama. Just 29% of white, no-college Obama-Trump voters approved of his performance, and 69% disapproved. Similarly, 75% said they would repeal the Affordable Care Act. Only 15% believed the economy had improved over the last year, and just 23% said their income had increased over the last four years.”