Who Will Actually Vote in Alabama?

A new SurveyMonkey poll finds that “minor differences in the methods used to model or select the likely electorate produce wildly varying estimates in Alabama. Data collected over the past week, with different models applied, show everything between an 8 eight percentage point margin favoring Jones and a 9 percentage point margin favoring Moore.”

“The same survey data also reveal the underlying tensions behind the volatile results: Alabama Democrats are angry and energized, while a significant but critical minority of Republicans are conflicted between a nominee they dislike and a President they support.”

“Jones leads by wide margins when we simply ask voters if they plan to vote… An alternative, which favors Moore, defines likely voters as those with a self-reported history of voting in lower turnout elections.”