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Ohio Special Election Is a Toss Up

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A new Monmouth poll in Ohio’s 12th congressional district finds the special election race a toss up: “Different voter models suggest that the race could go either way.”

Tory Balderson (R) edges Danny O’Connor (D) by 44% to 43% among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote.

A standard model that looks like a typical midterm voter pool also shows Balderon barely ahead, 46% to 45%. A lower turnout model where only the most reliable voters show up, shows Balderson ahead 49% to 44%.

However, in a Democratic “surge” model akin to turnout patterns that have been seen in many special elections held since 2017, O’Connor is just ahead, 46% to 45%.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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