Washington Post: “The tight race between Democrat Danny O’Connor and Republican Troy Balderson in a deep-red Ohio House district Tuesday reinforced a trend that has been developing for more than a year: Democrats are routinely beating their 2016 performance by double digits — putting the House and perhaps even the Senate within their grasp in November.”

“In Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, which encompasses the northern suburbs of Columbus and rural expanses to the east, voters preferred President Trump by 11 points and GOP Rep. Patrick Tiberi by 37 points in 2016. But with the race too close to call late Tuesday night, those voters showed a marked shift away from Republicans.”

Micah Cohen: “Ohio 12 looks to have shifted by about 13 points towards Democrats relative to its partisan lean (how we would expect it to vote in a neutral political environment)…  That’s just about in line with Democrats’ average overperformance in these elections in the Trump era. Special elections have been a good sign for Democratic midterm hopes for awhile now, and Ohio 12 was no exception (even if Balderson hangs on).“

Troy Balderson (R) appeared to denigrate Franklin County — home of Columbus, and many OH-12 voters, who are probably more likely to vote Democratic — in his final campaign stop of Monday night, saying the district doesn’t want a representative from there, NBC News reports.

“On the one hand, this certainly seems like a good way for Balderson to alienate potential voters in a densely-populated part of the district. But it also says something about conservatives’ strategy in the Trump era, as diverse cities and suburbs become more and more politically distant from Trump country.”

Ron Brownstein: “The party is now consciously trading suburbs for small towns: the country club for the country. It’s the famous Kinsley gaffe of saying what you really mean: we don’t consider those voters who we are anymore.”

Playbook: “Something incredibly predictable is beginning to happen ahead of the Ohio election tonight: Republicans are dumping on Troy Balderson, their candidate. They say he didn’t raise enough money, he had high negatives and was kind of a dud.”

“Why are they doing this? Because this race is tight. Anything short of a five- to seven-point win for Balderson over Danny O’Connor is an embarrassment, and could portend disaster for the GOP. And Republicans think, if they win, they’re going to just eke it out.”

”It almost doesn’t matter who wins tonight. If the political climate allows Democrats to make R+7 districts competitive, the battlefield in November is something approaching 80 seats.”

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) told ABC News that he asked congressional candidate Troy Balderson (R) last week why he invited President Trump to campaign for him ahead of this week’s special election. According to Kasich, Balderson replied, “No I didn’t.”

Said Kasich: “I think Donald Trump decides where he wants to go. I think they think they are firing up the base.”

Kasich warned that Trump’s appearance in Ohio could hurt Balderson because “the chaos that seems to surround Donald Trump has unnerved a lot of people. Suburban women in particular here are the ones that are really turned off. It’s really kind of shocking because this (special election) should be just a slam dunk and it’s not.”

The Columbus Dispatch reports Balderson won’t address Kasich’s claim.

“The entire Republican Party machinery has converged on this suburban Columbus district for a furious eleventh-hour campaign aimed at saving a conservative House seat and averting another special election disaster,” Politico reports.

“But in the final days ahead of Tuesday’s election, signs were everywhere that Democrats are surging — from recent polling to the private and public statements of many Republicans, including the GOP candidate himself. The district has been reliably red for more than three decades, but the sheer size of the Republican cavalry made clear how worried the party is about losing it.”

Playbook: “Republicans are becoming increasingly concerned that they will lose the special election in Ohio’s 12th congressional district, which would be a horrible sign for their election prospects this fall.”

“For the last few weeks, Republicans involved in the race said internal polling had Republican Troy Balderson beating Democrat Danny O’Connor by a high single or low double-digit margin. But the race has tightened, and the election is five days away. A public poll conducted by Monmouth had Balderson up by one point yesterday.”

“This would be a tough loss for Republicans to explain away. This district has been held by Republicans — Pat Tiberi and John Kasich — for 35 years. They got the candidate they wanted in Balderson. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC, has spent $2.4 million. The NRCC has kicked in $1.3 million.”

A new Monmouth poll in Ohio’s 12th congressional district finds the special election race a toss up: “Different voter models suggest that the race could go either way.”

Tory Balderson (R) edges Danny O’Connor (D) by 44% to 43% among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote.

A standard model that looks like a typical midterm voter pool also shows Balderon barely ahead, 46% to 45%. A lower turnout model where only the most reliable voters show up, shows Balderson ahead 49% to 44%.

However, in a Democratic “surge” model akin to turnout patterns that have been seen in many special elections held since 2017, O’Connor is just ahead, 46% to 45%.

President Trump “will travel to Ohio on Saturday to campaign for Republican special election candidate Troy Balderson, according to a senior party official — a move that comes amid rising GOP fears about the race,” Politico reports.

“A Republican loss, coming after special election defeats in Pennsylvania and Alabama, would be deeply deflating for the conservative base and party donors, and provide more evidence that a wave is building against them heading into the midterms.”

Columbus Dispatch: “The Congressional Leadership Fund is among a half-a-dozen independent organizations spending hundreds of thousands of dollars each in what many political observers originally expected to be a ho-hum contest in a decidedly Republican district.”

“With growing signs that the race is close, money raised outside the 12th District is suddenly showing up inside the district.”

The August 7th special election in central Ohio, which was called after longtime Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R-OH) resigned, “will be the last gut-check for both parties ahead of November’s midterms,” the Washington Post reports.

“Danny O’Connor, the Democratic nominee in a special congressional election here, has denounced both party leader Nancy Pelosi and the Republican-passed tax cut. Troy Balderson, a longtime Republican state legislator, has underwhelmed his party’s strategists and lagged in fundraising.”

“Republicans, who presided over a 2011 gerrymander that appeared to turn the district safely red, concede that Democrats have put it in play. A Republican super PAC has been on the air for five weeks; both Vice President Pence and House Speaker Paul Ryan have flown in to help Balderson raise money and wake up voters.”

A new Monmouth poll in Ohio’s 12th congressional district finds Troy Balderson (R) appears to have an advantage over Danny O’Connor (D) in the August 7th special House election, 43% to 33%.

The race does not look much different using two likely voter models. A historical midterm-like turnout model gives Balderson a 48% to 39% lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic areas narrows that edge slightly to 46% to 39%.

The Cook Political Report moves the August 7th special election in Ohio’s 12th congressional district to fill former Rep. Pat Tiberi’s (R-OH) vacant seat from Lean Republican to Toss Up.