A new Monmouth poll in Ohio’s 12th congressional district finds Troy Balderson (R) appears to have an advantage over Danny O’Connor (D) in the August 7th special House election, 43% to 33%.
The race does not look much different using two likely voter models. A historical midterm-like turnout model gives Balderson a 48% to 39% lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic areas narrows that edge slightly to 46% to 39%.
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Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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