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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 195

Shake Up

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 195: Shake Up

Fitzpatrick Hanging On In New Pennsylvania District

October 3, 2018 · 11:27 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania’s newly drawn 1st Congressional District finds Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) has inched ahead of challenger Scott Wallace (D), 50% to 46% among likely voters.

“The race narrows to a virtual tie of 49% for Fitzpatrick and 48% for Wallace using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Fitzpatrick with a larger 52% to 45% edge over Wallace.”

David Weigel: “NRCC chairman Steve Stivers has called Scott Wallace the worst Democratic nominee in the country, and he’s down by 4 points.”

Democratic Enthusiasm Tilts Some GOP Districts

September 10, 2018 · 1:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in eight competitive congressional districts — CA-48, PA-1, PA-17, NJ-3, NJ-11, OH-12, VA-10 and WV-3 — finds support is evenly divided between the Democratic and the Republican candidates for Congress, 43% to 42%.

The Democratic advantage increases slightly among likely voters, 47% to 43%.

Key takeaway: Republicans routinely won these eight districts by double digit margins in recent election cycles.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “These findings do not predict that Democrats are going to sweep these eight House contests. But they do indicate that the Republican candidate in each of these districts is facing an unprecedented challenge to hold that seat.”

Democratic Enthusiasm Could Shift Key House Race

June 4, 2018 · 1:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll finds Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) leads challenger Scott Wallace (D) by 7-points among registered voters, 49% to 42%.

However, the race is much tighter using two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Fitzpatrick a negligible 48% to 47% lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in areas where President Trump is unpopular gives an insignificant edge to Wallace at 48% to 47%.