Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193
The Magnificent Seven
Harley Rouda (D) increased his lead to 2,208 votes early Wednesday over incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) in the race for the 48th congressional district seat, the Los Angeles Times reports.
“With all precincts reporting, Rouda held 50.7% of the vote. There remain thousands of provisional and late vote-by-mail ballots from the district left to be counted post-election.”
A new Monmouth poll in California’s 48th congressional district finds Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) edging challenger Harley Rouda (D), 50% to 48%.
“The race flips, but is still tight, when applying a model that includes a potential turnout surge in Democratic precincts – 50% for Rouda and 48% for Rohrabacher. A model with lower overall turnout, however, gives the Republican a lead of 52% to 46%. None of the margins in these models are statistically significant.”
A new Monmouth poll in eight competitive congressional districts — CA-48, PA-1, PA-17, NJ-3, NJ-11, OH-12, VA-10 and WV-3 — finds support is evenly divided between the Democratic and the Republican candidates for Congress, 43% to 42%.
The Democratic advantage increases slightly among likely voters, 47% to 43%.
Key takeaway: Republicans routinely won these eight districts by double digit margins in recent election cycles.
Said pollster Patrick Murray: “These findings do not predict that Democrats are going to sweep these eight House contests. But they do indicate that the Republican candidate in each of these districts is facing an unprecedented challenge to hold that seat.”
A new Monmouth poll in California’s 48th congressional district finds challenger Harley Rouda (D) edging Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R), 46% to 43% among registered voters.
“The state of the race does not change much when applying two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model shows the race at 47% for Rouda and 45% for Rohrabacher, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic precincts gives Rouda a statistically insignificant 48% to 44% edge.”
“Rohrabacher has consistently won the district by double digits, but higher levels of enthusiasm among Democratic voters are making this year’s contest close.”
David Wasserman: “Democrats’ path to a majority depends on California more than any other state: they have excellent chances in seven GOP seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, and a few more could be long shots in a wave. But in at least four districts, Democratic over-enthusiasm has produced crowded fields that could lock Democrats out of the fall race altogether.”
“Under California’s unorthodox ‘top two’ primary system — first implemented in 2012 — all candidates appear on the same June primary ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to a November runoff.”
“At the moment, Democrats face the greatest danger of a shutout in the 48th CD, where Rep. Dana Rohrabacher faces a credible challenge from former Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh and three credible Democrats will be dividing their party’s vote. But it’s also possible Democrats could fail to make the fall ballot in the 39th and 49th CDs, where Reps. Ed Royce and Darrell Issa are retiring, as well as tarnished Rep. Duncan Hunter’s 50th CD.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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