Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-NJ) is going “positive” — a sign that that the moderate and independent voters of suburban New Jersey might need some tending if MacArthur is going to keep his Washington job, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

“Never mind that MacArthur and his allies have been pounding Kim, a Rhodes scholar who served as a national security officer under President Barack Obama, with negative ads for months: tax cheat, liar, carpetbagger, ‘Real Fishy,’ Nancy Pelosi liberal.”

A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district finds Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-NJ) barely leading challenger Andy Kim (D), 41% to 40%, among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote.

“When applying two different likely voter models, the contest shifts in the Democrat’s favor although it remains basically tied. A historical midterm model gives Kim 45% support and MacArthur 44%, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic precincts gives Kim a slight 46% to 43% lead. These gaps are within the margin of error for these samples.”

The Cook Political Report has the district as Lean Republican.