MacArthur Faces Tough Race In New Jersey

A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district finds Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-NJ) barely leading challenger Andy Kim (D), 41% to 40%, among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote.

“When applying two different likely voter models, the contest shifts in the Democrat’s favor although it remains basically tied. A historical midterm model gives Kim 45% support and MacArthur 44%, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic precincts gives Kim a slight 46% to 43% lead. These gaps are within the margin of error for these samples.”

The Cook Political Report has the district as Lean Republican.