A new Monmouth poll in West Virginia’s 3rd congressional district finds Carol Miller (R) has overtaken Richard Ojeda (D), 48% to 45%.

“Other turnout models show similar results, with 48% to 46% leads for Miller using either a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts or a model that projects lower turnout overall.  In June, Ojeda actually held a lead of between 6 and 9 points in Monmouth’s poll – 47% to 41% in the standard model, 48% to 39% in the Democratic surge model, and 47% to 40% in the low turnout model. While there has been a significant increase in Miller’s vote share, her current lead is within the poll’s margin of error for all three likely voter models.”

The Cook Political Report has the race as Lean Republican.

Cook Political Report: “A coal country district that voted 73 percent to 23 percent for President Trump might sound like mission impossible for Democrats. Yet this race could turn out be one of the wildest of the cycle. A new Monmouth University poll shows Trump-voting Democratic state Sen. Richard Ojeda leading state Del. Carol Miller 43 percent to 41 percent for the seat Rep. Evan Jenkins vacated to run unsuccessfully for Senate.”

“GOP operatives admit the poll isn’t a fluke, and in this case a slight lead for a Democratic candidate makes some sense.”