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Comstock Trails By 12% In Virginia

October 9, 2018 · 8:04 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Washington Post-Schar School Poll finds President Trump’s unpopularity fuels a clear lead for Jennifer Wexton (D) over Rep. Barbara Comstock (R), 55% to 43%, “putting a prized northern Virginia district within reach for Democrats for the first time in almost four decades.”

Key finding: “The survey finds voters say the president is the most important factor influencing likely voters’ choice for Congress, more so even than the strong economy which would boost the party in power in a typical election year.”

2018 Campaign VA-10

Comstock Still Trails In Virginia

October 2, 2018 · 8:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in Virginia’s 10th congressional district finds Jennifer Wexton (D) continues to lead Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA), 50% to 44%.

“The GOP incumbent’s favorable ratings have improved since the summer, but the challenger holds the advantage on key issues and is bolstered by the fact that Pres. Donald Trump remains unpopular in the district. The poll also finds that controversy surrounding the current Supreme Court nomination is not having an appreciable impact on this House contest.”

“Wexton extends her advantage to 52% to 43% using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts similar to the pattern seen in last year’s gubernatorial contest. A low turnout model shows Wexton with a smaller 50% to 46% edge.”

2018 Campaign VA-10

Democratic Enthusiasm Tilts Some GOP Districts

September 10, 2018 · 1:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in eight competitive congressional districts — CA-48, PA-1, PA-17, NJ-3, NJ-11, OH-12, VA-10 and WV-3 — finds support is evenly divided between the Democratic and the Republican candidates for Congress, 43% to 42%.

The Democratic advantage increases slightly among likely voters, 47% to 43%.

Key takeaway: Republicans routinely won these eight districts by double digit margins in recent election cycles.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “These findings do not predict that Democrats are going to sweep these eight House contests. But they do indicate that the Republican candidate in each of these districts is facing an unprecedented challenge to hold that seat.”

2018 Campaign CA-48, NJ-11, NJ-3, OH-12, PA-1, PA-17, VA-10, WV-3

GOP Incumbent Trails In Key Virginia District

June 26, 2018 · 12:33 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in Virginia’s 10th congressional district finds Jennifer Wexton (D) with a big lead over incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA), 49% to 39%, among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote.

“The race does not look significantly different using two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Wexton a 50% to 41% lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in areas where Pres. Donald Trump is unpopular gives Wexton a 51% to 40% lead.”

2018 Campaign VA-10

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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