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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

Democrats Set to Complete Sweep of Orange County Seats

November 15, 2018 · 10:35 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The latest vote tabulations show that Gil Cisneros (D) leapfrogged Young Kim (R) to take a 941-vote lead in the battle for California’s 39th district, erasing a 3,900-vote advantage that Kim held election night, the Orange County Register reports.

“Democrats now lead in every Orange County congressional race and stand positioned to sweep Republicans from power in all four Orange County GOP-held seats the party targeted this election… The historic shift has shocked the county’s Republican leadership, which as recently as 2017 insisted none of the area’s GOP House seats were in danger of flipping.”

2018 Campaign CA-39

Democrats Risk Disaster In Several California Districts

May 2, 2018 · 12:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

David Wasserman: “Democrats’ path to a majority depends on California more than any other state: they have excellent chances in seven GOP seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, and a few more could be long shots in a wave. But in at least four districts, Democratic over-enthusiasm has produced crowded fields that could lock Democrats out of the fall race altogether.”

“Under California’s unorthodox ‘top two’ primary system — first implemented in 2012 — all candidates appear on the same June primary ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to a November runoff.”

“At the moment, Democrats face the greatest danger of a shutout in the 48th CD, where Rep. Dana Rohrabacher faces a credible challenge from former Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh and three credible Democrats will be dividing their party’s vote. But it’s also possible Democrats could fail to make the fall ballot in the 39th and 49th CDs, where Reps. Ed Royce and Darrell Issa are retiring, as well as tarnished Rep. Duncan Hunter’s 50th CD.”

2018 Campaign CA-39, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50

Member feature

Top-Two Primary Could Help GOP Keep Royce’s Seat

January 10, 2018 · 10:17 am ET · Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Rep. Ed Royce’s (R-CA) decision not to run for re-election seems a gift to Democrats hoping to pick up his seat. Though Royce has served 13 terms, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in his district by nine points.

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2018 Campaign, Members CA-39

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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