Playbook: “Republicans avoided a multi-faceted disaster last night. If they lost, money would’ve gone dry… Balderson’s tight-as-a-tick victory should put all GOP incumbents on notice that this is a very challenging electoral climate. It’s the second-tier candidates — the R+5s to R+10s — who need to watch their backs. Endangered incumbents are already well aware they have races.”
“Moral victories warm hearts, but don’t win power back. Democrats will take solace that they kept this thing close. But the reality is: Dems have flipped a total of one single House seat in nine special elections since Trump became president. We’re not saying they don’t have an extremely favorable electoral climate — they do — but near victories don’t count.”
However: “The GOP has so far overcompensated for a bad environment — and bad candidates — by spending heaps of money. They spent $3.1 million here and $3.5 million in an unsuccessful bid to drag Rick Saccone over the finish line against Conor Lamb. There is simply no way they can keep doing that.”
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