Jonathan Bernstein: “For one thing, I’d be wary of paying much attention to that polling surge, at least until it sticks for a few weeks. It’s obviously better to get an announcement bounce than not, but it may not matter much in the long run. Biden’s main asset is that most Democrats like him and probably will continue to like him. But knowing that, we should expect that he’ll do well in early trial heats against a bunch of unknowns (and Bernie Sanders, who appears to have very limited appeal). We can also expect his support to rise when he’s been in the news. That doesn’t tell us much about how voters will react when they discover that they also like Julian Castro or Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren – which will probably be the case if and when those candidates become well known.”
“I’m also not overwhelmed by Biden’s endorsements. It’s obviously good that he was able to roll out more than the other contenders. And there’s a decent amount of diversity, indicating a coalition-style candidacy. But his lead over Harris and Cory Booker isn’t very big. This is the former vice president we’re talking about. It’s not as if Democratic politicians need to get to know him. If they want to see him on the campaign trail first, that would indicate a lot less confidence in him than if they wanted the same from, say, Amy Klobuchar or Beto O’Rourke. It would suggest either that they weren’t confident he could match his old form, or that they needed something new from him. It’s not a great sign that he hasn’t added any new endorsements since his announcement last Thursday, despite solid polling numbers. In fact, it suggests that a lot of party actors aren’t eager to jump onto the Biden bandwagon. “
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