Two Indicators That Mask Trump’s Economy

Leo Hindery: “The truth is that the numbers that Trump holds up as proof of a thriving economy are masking an economy that, according to the two most credible early indicators, is actually on the precipice of a recession. One indicator is how Treasury bonds are doing, and Wednesday things went badly. The yield on 10-year bonds fell below the rate on the 2-year Treasury bond — this phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, has always been a reliable early indicator of a recession because it best reflects bondholders’ short-term expectations for the economy.”

“The other indicator is unemployment. Despite an official Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment count of 6.1 million unemployed workers, the real unemployed worker figure is more like 11.5 million. By not counting the 1.5 million ‘marginally attached’ and ‘discouraged’ workers, and especially by not counting the 4 million workers who are ‘part-time-of-necessity,’ Trump’s official figure fails to capture the severe economic pain still being felt by far too many workers.”