Nate Silver: “Biden gets 30 percent of the vote among Democrats who say they’re paying ‘a lot’ of attention to the campaign, essentially the same as the 29 percent support he has from Democrats overall in Quinnipiac’s polling. Warren and Kamala Harris do gain some ground among the most attentive voters — while Sanders loses some ground. But still, Biden tops the field among voters in that category.”
“If you look at polls of Iowa, though, you see more evidence of an actual enthusiasm deficit for Biden.”
“Biden may already be trailing in Iowa, in fact. Among the last seven polls there — everything since the first debate in Miami — three have shown Biden leads, but two have had Warren ahead, along with one Biden/Warren tie and one Buttigieg lead. If you combine those top-line polls with the enthusiasm numbers, plus Warren’s strong ground game in Iowa, you can argue that the state is Warren’s to lose more than Biden’s.”
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