Jonathan Bernstein says we’re down to seven plausible Democratic nominees: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
“Quite a few would need a big surge from this point to be able to win, although that’s happened before. I also still find it hard to imagine a path for Sanders, but as long as he keeps his faction together it’s difficult to discount him entirely. Two others who will be at the next debate, activist Tom Steyer and entrepreneur Andrew Yang, have little if any support from party actors. Yes, Donald Trump won a nomination without such support, but he was leading in the polls at this point, not lagging far behind, and dominated media coverage throughout.”
“I’m not ruling anything out after 2016. So I won’t say it’s impossible for Steyer, Yang or one of the candidates who doesn’t make it into the next debate to win the nomination — but I will say it’s increasingly unlikely.”
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