Don’t Buy the Conventional Wisdom on Impeachment

Jonathan Bernstein: “I’m not predicting that President Donald Trump will be removed from office; that’s probably not going to happen. But there’s a big difference between probably and certainly. And after two weeks of public impeachment hearings, it seems to me that a certainty has set in: that there’s simply no way that Republicans will ever turn on Trump.”

“Perhaps! It’s true that congressional Republicans seem to be more solidly behind Trump than ever. In particular, Representative Will Hurd, who might’ve been the most likely member of the party to vote for impeachment and take a few others with him, seems to have decided against it. The most likely outcome may still be a close-to-party-line impeachment in the House and acquittal in the Senate.”

“But remember that conservative Republicans stuck with President Richard Nixon in 1974 … right up until they didn’t. Trump’s seemingly unanimous support right now is similar to the backing that Nixon had even as his original cover-up collapsed in early 1973; as the Senate Watergate committee hearings dominated that summer; as the Saturday Night Massacre unfolded in October; and as the House judiciary committee debated and voted on specific articles of impeachment in 1974. And then: The smoking gun tape came out and it all collapsed immediately. Even Nixon’s strongest supporter on the judiciary committee, the Jim Jordan of the day, who had just vigorously defended the president during televised deliberations, flipped and said he’d vote to impeach on the House floor.”