Philip Bump: “It’s trite to say that the result of a Trump-Sanders election is nearly impossible to predict, but that doesn’t make it incorrect.”
“We only need to look back four years to see how things can get wonky quickly. Clinton led Trump nearly every day of 2016 and had a wide lead in late October. At the very end of the contest, outside factors — the letter from then FBI director James B. Comey, for one — and other shifts — such as skeptical independents deciding on Trump — combined to give Trump an edge in places where he needed one. Trump’s election was not really predictable in February 2016, but it happened anyway.”
“One can’t unilaterally reject Sanders’s chances any more than you might reject that of Trump. It’s safe to say that the only views of the outcome of the November election that should be rejected are those which are offered with certainty.”
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