Harry Enten: “We’ve still got five months until the general election, which, in theory, is plenty of time for the race for president to change. Indeed, horserace polling has sometimes shifted considerably between this point and Election Day.”
“Presidential approval ratings, however, haven’t historically moved much from June of an election year to Election Day.”
“It seems quite likely at this point that Trump’s approval rating is going to be south of 50% and his net approval rating (approval – disapproval) to be negative when people vote. That should be deeply troubling to Trump, given the strong link between approval ratings and reelection chances.”
