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Biden’s Chances Dip a Little

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The FiveThirtyEight forecast shows Joe Biden’s win probability down to 70%, after some mediocre polls for him this morning. He had been hovering around 73% for much of the last week.

Nate Silver: “First, Biden does not appear to be getting much of a convention bounce. He’s at +8.8 in our national poll average (still quite good) but that’s only up from +8.4 before the conventions.”

“Second, Biden has gotten some not-so-spectacular swing state polls lately. His lead in Florida is down to +5.4 and in Pennsylvania to +5.8, which remain the most likely tipping-point states. Not bad, but the Electoral College – popular vote gap would appear to be widening a bit.”

A big caveat: “This is not based on the world’s most spectacular set of polling, especially at the state level. And almost all of it is online panels, with a robopoll thrown in here and there; basically no live caller polls since the pre-convention round from ~10-14 days ago.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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