Ricardo Fernolz has modified The Economist election model to allow you to see how odds change under different scenarios.
What happens if Trump wins Florida? How about if Biden wins Arizona? Which states are most pivotal?

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Ricardo Fernolz has modified The Economist election model to allow you to see how odds change under different scenarios.
What happens if Trump wins Florida? How about if Biden wins Arizona? Which states are most pivotal?

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Punchbowl News: “The House will return Monday night to several new dynamics.” “Voters in Houston will elect a candidate this weekend to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX). If…
Punchbowl News: “Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House are negotiating a framework to pass five of the six outstanding FY2026 funding bills, as well as a stopgap…
House Democrats have been privately advised by their leadership not to travel to Minnesota in support of anti-ICE protesters there, Axios reports. Save to Favorites
“President Trump dismissed a bipartisan groundswell calling for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to be fired after Alex Pretti was killed — a new example of a top Trump official…
ICE officers in Minnesota were directed to avoid engaging with “agitators” as they carry out President Trump’s immigration crackdown, Reuters reports. The new guidance, offering the most detailed look so…
“The Trump administration’s immigration agenda is under scrutiny, and so are the officials overseeing it. That now includes Stephen Miller,” NOTUS reports. “Miller, the architect behind President Donald Trump’s hard-line…
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said that in his view, Vice President JD Vance has “offered comfort” to people on the right who espouse anti-Jewish views, as the Republican Party navigates…
“The Senate is on a collision course for the second shutdown since October as the two parties clash over the future of ICE,” Punchbowl News reports. “Senate Democrats unveiled a…
Bruce Springsteen is dedicating his new song to the people of Minneapolis, criticizing President Trump’s ongoing immigration enforcement operations in the city, the AP reports. The lyrics of “Streets of…
“When Republicans muscled President Trump’s signature domestic policy bill through Congress last year, they gave a windfall to the Department of Homeland Security — including for Immigration and Customs Enforcement…
“The FBI executed a search warrant on the elections warehouse of Georgia’s most populous county Wednesday seeking ballots from the 2020 election, the latest apparent move in President Donald Trump’s…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says he has “nothing for you” on whether he will leave the Fed board when his term as chair is up in May, Bloomberg reports….
Washington Post: “In Europe, there’s a growing clamor from some corners to boycott the World Cup — and questioning of the fitness of the U.S. to host the tournament.” Save…
“The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to take a break from a recent run of interest rate cuts, as the central bank navigates questions about its independence and awaits a…
“The two federal agents who opened fire on a Veterans Affairs nurse in Minneapolis have been placed on leave, as more voices, including some in the Republican Party, broke with…
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN that Democrats are likely to introduce a privileged impeachment resolution on the House floor targeting Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Said Jeffries: “Well,…
FBI agents were executing a search warrant at the Fulton County elections office near Atlanta on Wednesday, the AP reports. Save to Favorites
“If I nominate Ted Cruz for the Supreme Court, the Democrats will vote for him because they want to get him the hell out. And the Republicans will vote for…
Financial Times: “Close ties between business and previous administrations have long fuelled a sense that America’s free market tilts towards well-connected elites. But this administration has normalised case-by-case dealmaking as…
“President Trump sharply intensified his threats against Iran on Wednesday, suggesting that if it did not agree to a set of demands the administration had made of the country’s leaders,…
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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