Also interesting in The Upshot is their graphic showing how polling would translate into electoral votes.
- If you only count states where one candidate leads by at least three points, Joe Biden gets 291 electoral votes, easily enough to put him into the White House.
- If the polls translate exactly to the results in each state – which they won’t – Biden wins 353 electoral votes.
However, if state polls “are as wrong as they were in 2016” — and in the same direction — Trump would win 278 electoral votes and re-election.
Related for members: Why a Trump Win Will Be Harder to Pull Off This Time.Save to Favorites